The fourth and final major golf tournament of the year, the Open Championship, is set to commence this Thursday at the historic Royal Portrush Golf Club.
Our panel of golf analysts shares their insights on potential winners, while our betting specialists identify the best value wagers. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the favorites and other key considerations for the 2025 Open Championship.
Rory McIlroy is aiming to secure his second Open Championship title.
Contents
Expert Picks
Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. I’ve consistently picked Rory for the career Grand Slam across the majors, and a win on his home turf feels like the perfect culmination.
Tory Barron: Rory McIlroy. After the U.S. Open, I`ve somewhat conceded my predictive abilities, but I`m still backing McIlroy for his sixth major championship. Despite some struggles post-Masters, his tie for second at the Scottish Open indicates a return to form. I believe he`ll harness some Northern Ireland magic to lift the Claret Jug for the first time since 2014.
Michael Collins: Rory McIlroy. Seven of McIlroy’s last eight competitive rounds have been 68 or better, including three rounds of 65 or better. Among all players in the top 10 for shots gained: tee to green, McIlroy is undeniably in the best form heading into this week. This victory will surely earn him Player of the Year honors.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Jon Rahm. Rahm has been consistently improving in the majors, making this a prime week for him to return to the winner’s circle. He has finished inside the top 15 in all three majors this year, with a recent T-7 at the U.S. Open. With three top-10 finishes in his last four Open Championships, it seems like an opportune moment for him to add a third major title.
Andy North: Rory McIlroy. Rory appears to be back to his best. Although he`ll face immense pressure playing at The Open in his home region, I believe he will manage it and emerge as the champion.
Mark Schlabach: Rory McIlroy. I initially questioned if Rory would coast through the rest of the season after achieving the career Grand Slam with his Masters win in April. He seemed to lack motivation and admitted finding it hard to practice for hours after Augusta. However, his form has significantly improved in his last three starts, including a tie for second at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. I’m confident he wants to erase the memory of missing the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019, and winning another Claret Jug in his native Northern Ireland would be another incredible highlight in his Hall of Fame career.
Curtis Strange: Keegan Bradley. He`s playing exceptionally well, having just won the Travelers Championship. I’m drawn to the narrative, and Keegan winning and potentially becoming a Ryder Cup captain would be an amazing story for both The Open and the Ryder Cup.
Paolo Uggetti: Xander Schauffele. There’s a distinct connection between The Open and Schauffele, who has shown remarkable consistency at this event over the years. While no one has successfully defended a major since Brooks Koepka at the 2018 PGA Championship, I believe that when Royal Portrush reveals its true challenges in wind or rain, Schauffele will be among the few prepared to conquer it.
Jon Rahm is seeking his inaugural Open Championship victory.
Betting Roundtable
Who is your pick to win?
David Gordon, ESPN Research: Jon Rahm (+1200). While high finishes aren`t wins, Rahm is one of only two players with Top-15 finishes in each of the past four majors (dating back to last year’s Open); the other is Scottie Scheffler. He`s also finished 7th or better at The Open in three of the last four years, and his T-11th finish here in 2019 adds to his familiarity. All signs suggest he could very well secure the third leg of the Slam this week.
Pamela Maldonado, Betting Analyst: Rory McIlroy (+650). No one carries more emotional weight into Royal Portrush than Rory. It`s his home turf, and after a crushing missed cut in 2019, this return is personal. His 2025 form is strong, highlighted by a win at Augusta and elite tee-to-green consistency (5th in the field). He excels on links courses and has a long history of thriving in wind and rain (Scottish Open, Irish Open, Pebble Beach). While his driving accuracy can be low, his scrambling and mental toughness compensate. Portrush is a place where narrative and numbers perfectly align for him.
Anita Marks, Betting Analyst: Rory McIlroy (+650). Rory looked excellent last week, finishing T2 in Scotland, and he’s peaking at precisely the right time. He dominated Royal Portrush at age 16, shooting a remarkable 61. The significant advantage will be the hometown crowd, who will be fervently cheering him on. A win here would put him halfway to a second career Grand Slam—talk about motivation!
Who is your favorite bet to make the Top 10?
Pamela Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+140). He has consistently proven himself in challenging course setups (Torrey Pines, Augusta, Muirfield Village). His ball trajectory, control, and power are well-suited for windy conditions, and his Open Championship performances are compelling, with three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts. His 2025 PGA form is incredibly strong, with no finishes worse than T14 in the Masters, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open, and he possesses the mental resilience to surge on Sunday.
Anita Marks: Tyrell Hatton (+300). Hatton is an astute links specialist, and this tournament presents the perfect opportunity for him to claim a major. Players on LIV Golf are often out of mind, but Hatton is one of the very few who has remained consistent, especially in majors. He had a T6 finish at Royal Portrush in 2019, demonstrating his ability to master this course.
David Gordon: Sam Burns (+550). He has become a consistent presence in majors after earlier struggles in his career. Burns held the outright 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open and was tied for 2nd entering the final round at last year’s Open, both times facing brutal weather conditions in the final round. I particularly like the value at +550.
What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy bet?
Pamela Maldonado: Rory McIlroy Top 10 (-105). Getting nearly even money for a Top 10 finish is excellent value. He has rounded back into form with three consecutive Top 20 finishes, including back-to-back top 10s at the Travelers and Scottish Opens, showcasing elite ball-striking numbers. Aside from an outlier at the RBC Canadian Open, his strokes gained metrics are strong across the board. At Royal Portrush, on home soil, this is a high-floor bet with realistic top-five potential.
David Gordon: Scottie Scheffler Low American (+240). This represents the best value I can find on Scheffler, as it’s double his price for a Top-5 finish (+120). While wary of Xander Schauffele and others, this is my preferred Scheffler bet, especially given that the other two tournament favorites (McIlroy and Rahm) are not from the United States.
Who are you avoiding entirely?
Pamela Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler. This is purely a value decision, not a talent fade. Paying -170 for a Top 10 and only getting +120 for a Top 5 is high risk without sufficient reward, particularly on a course like Portrush. Yes, he continues to contend despite losing strokes putting, which is remarkable, but these price points are inflated beyond reasonable risk. I would also prefer to bet outrights on other players and avoid the `without Scheffler` markets, as his presence isn’t distorting the top of the board enough to justify the premium. If he wins, you lose, like most of the field. But if he doesn`t, you want a full payout, not a diluted number just because you paid to avoid one name.
David Gordon: Patrick Cantlay. His final position has been worse than his world ranking entering the event in 23 of his last 24 major starts. Cantlay often performs well on typical PGA Tour setups, yet it rarely, if ever, translates to major championship venues, with the most recent examples being his missed cuts this year at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?
Pamela Maldonado: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+260). This is where you trade safety for significant value. His game is perfectly suited for links courses—controlled ball flight, elite scrambling, and a proven ability to handle tough weather. At +260 for a Top 10, the upside is considerable, but even a Top 20 provides a margin for a player who rarely falters on this side of the pond. If there was ever a time for him to win… it`s here, though we have seen this scenario before.
Anita Marks: Ryan Fox outright winner (+6000). Fox is having an excellent season with two wins on the PGA Tour. He boasts powerful drives and a great short game, which are ideal for a links course. He shot a 66 in Round 1 in Scotland last week. Additionally, Fox ranks 8th in putting average and is 23rd on tour in total strokes gained.
David Gordon: Russell Henley outright winner (+6000). Quietly, Henley is coming off three consecutive Top-10 finishes, including two in signature events and one at the U.S. Open. He has fully returned to the form he displayed before winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. He`s gained strokes around the green in 10 straight starts, a crucial metric given the small greens at Royal Portrush. Henley entered Sunday tied for 2nd at last year’s Open, en route to finishing fifth.
Any other bets stand out to you?
Pamela Maldonado: Adam Scott Top 20 (+290). This is pure value based on experience and ball-striking. He’s played every major links venue over the last two decades and enters with trending tee-to-green form. At Royal Portrush, where creativity and control are more critical than raw power, his tempo and course management give him a clear advantage. While his short game can be a concern, at this price, you’re betting on sharp irons and veteran savvy doing enough to keep him within the top 20.
David Gordon: Xander Schauffele Top 20 (+140). He has consistently cashed in this market in 13 of his last 14 majors. Furthermore, he has never missed the cut in seven career appearances at The Open. After his tie for 8th at the Scottish Open last week, I will continue to invest in Xander for Top 20 finishes in majors, especially at +140.
