The third major championship of the year is set to tee off with the 2025 U.S. Open, taking place from Thursday through Sunday at the formidable Oakmont Country Club.
As the world`s top golfers gather, anticipation builds. Our panel of golf experts offers their insights on who is most likely to hoist the trophy. Additionally, our betting analysts weigh in with their strategies, identifying potential value plays among the field. Let`s dive into the favorites and discover more before the 2025 U.S. Open begins.
Contents
Expert Predictions for the Winner
- Matt Barrie: Jon Rahm
- Picking Jon Rahm feels like a contrarian choice when Scottie Scheffler is so dominant, but Rahm appears to be rounding back into peak major championship form. His T14 finish at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship show progress, reminding us of the player who was arguably the best globally before joining LIV.
- Tory Barron: Scottie Scheffler
- Oakmont is notorious for its difficulty, designed to challenge every aspect of a golfer`s game. The champion will need to be equally formidable. My pick is the player who has won three of his last four starts by a massive combined margin of 17 strokes – Scottie Scheffler is simply unstoppable when he`s playing this well.
- Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler
- In the words of Marvel, Scottie Scheffler possesses the Infinity Gauntlet and all the Stones. He is inevitable. Oakmont, when set up by the USGA, is incredibly demanding, limiting the potential winners to a very small elite group. Scottie is undoubtedly part of that group, and I see him as unavoidable.
- Jeff Darlington: Scottie Scheffler
- We`ve reached a point with Scheffler reminiscent of Tiger Woods` prime – where picking him feels almost cliché, but the reality of his dominance overrides the desire for an outside-the-box prediction. While Bryson DeChambeau`s game seems well-suited for Oakmont, Scheffler`s current level of consistency and skill is just too high.
- Michael Eaves: Sepp Straka
- The likely setup at Oakmont suggests a return to the brutally tough U.S. Open courses of the past, placing a premium on hitting fairways and greens. Sepp Straka has excelled in these areas this season, showcasing accuracy and confidence, already securing two wins. With five of the last six U.S. Open winners being first-time major champions, Straka fits the profile to continue that trend.
- Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Scottie Scheffler
- If the choice was Scottie versus the rest of the field, I might lean towards the field. However, this exercise requires picking one winner. The part of me that suspects highly anticipated outcomes rarely materialize wants to choose someone else, but the part that simply watches golf sees Scottie as the clear pick.
- Andy North: Scottie Scheffler
- He`s won three of his last four tournaments. Success at Oakmont heavily depends on precise iron play, and nobody is performing better with their irons than Scottie Scheffler right now.
- Mark Schlabach: Scottie Scheffler
- Yes, it`s not exactly a bold prediction, but when the task is to identify the player most likely to lift the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday, how could you realistically choose anyone else? I picked Rory McIlroy at the PGA Championship based on his history at Quail Hollow, and Scheffler simply reaffirmed his status as the player to beat. The world No. 1 is playing exceptionally well, leading the PGA Tour in almost every strokes-gained category from tee to green. He`s also improved his putting, ranking 25th in strokes gained: putting, which was previously considered his weakness. If he`s near the top on Sunday, nobody closes out a victory like Scottie.
- Marty Smith: Scottie Scheffler
- Oakmont is arguably the most challenging golf course globally. It demands unparalleled precision and accuracy. Scottie`s current game is marked by incredible freedom and precision, and I expect that to translate perfectly to Oakmont.
- Curtis Strange: Scottie Scheffler
- He is the world No. 1, has won three of his last four starts, and is playing on one of the world`s most strategically demanding courses – Oakmont!
- Paolo Uggetti: Jon Rahm
- I was very impressed with Jon Rahm`s performance at the PGA Championship. It wasn`t just that he was in contention for a major for the first time since the 2023 Masters, but his game and competitive spirit seemed perfectly aligned, producing truly compelling golf. His playing style should be well-suited for the challenge of Oakmont, and I believe he is one of the few players capable of mounting a serious challenge to Scottie Scheffler this week.
- Scott Van Pelt: Jon Rahm
- Simply put, someone has to make a pick other than Scottie Scheffler.
Betting Roundtable Discussion
Who is the Pick to Win?
- David Gordon, Research: Rory McIlroy (+1200)
- McIlroy was a co-favorite at +450 just last month at the PGA Championship. His price is now nearly triple, partly due to some reported equipment issues. I trust Rory to resolve these issues and return to form at a tournament where he has finished runner-up in the last two consecutive years.
- Pamela Maldonado, Betting Analyst: Collin Morikawa (+2200)
- Morikawa possesses the emotional control and analytical approach that are perfect for tackling Oakmont. He started the year strongly with two runner-up finishes, but his form has cooled since March with only one Top 10. However, his game is built for this course, ranking fourth in accuracy and fifth in approach shots. If he remains calm and sticks to his plan, Morikawa could quietly be in contention on Sunday, and it wouldn`t surprise anyone.
- Anita Marks, Betting Analyst: Jon Rahm (+1200)
- Rahm`s long game is ideally suited for success at Oakmont. He arrives this week in excellent form, and his competitive fire is clearly back! His T14 at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship indicate he`s capable of winning. Rahm leads LIV Golf in greens in regulation percentage, a crucial statistic for this particular course.
Favorite Top 10 Bets
- Gordon: Xander Schauffele (+210)
- I`m prioritizing Schauffele`s spectacular U.S. Open history over his slightly inconsistent season form, especially at a price I doubt we`ll see for him often in the future. He boasts seven Top 10 finishes in his eight career U.S. Open appearances; his worst finish ever is T14 (2022).
- Maldonado: Keegan Bradley (+475)
- Golf is fundamentally about trusting your swing. With back-to-back Top 10 finishes and improved putting, Bradley clearly has that trust right now. He is a high-quality ball striker across the board and surprisingly effective around the greens. While his putter can be inconsistent, Bradley`s ball-striking ceiling is absolutely high enough to contend for a win.
Scottie Scheffler Betting Focus
| 2025 U.S. Open Betting Favorites | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +275 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +750 |
| Jon Rahm | 12-1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 14-1 |
- Gordon: To finish Round 1 in Top 10 (+150)
- Scheffler has been inside the Top 10 after 10 of his last 11 major championship rounds (a 91% rate) dating back to last year. Furthermore, each of the last four U.S. Open winners, and nine of the last 11, were positioned within the Top 10 after the first 18 holes.
- Maldonado: To finish Round 1 in the Top 10 (+150)
- Ranking third on tour in Round 1 scoring average, Scheffler is incredibly sharp from the start. Analyzing his strokes gained numbers by round, Scottie performs his best off the tee, with his irons, and overall from tee-to-green in the opening round, gaining an average of 3.98 strokes total – which is at least a full 1.5 strokes better than his performance in any of the subsequent three rounds. He starts strong and maintains solid play throughout.
Value Picks & Long Shots
- Gordon: Cameron Young (+10000)
- Following a difficult start to the season that included four missed cuts in five starts, Young is showing improved form with a T4 finish at the recent RBC Canadian Open and a tied seventh finish in Pennsylvania at the Truist Championship three starts prior. He possesses significant major championship experience and a track record of success, with five Top 10 finishes between the 2022 PGA Championship and the 2024 Masters.
- Maldonado: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500)
- While putting and scrambling might be concerns, Bradley`s approach and ball-striking floor are exceptionally high. With two Top 10 finishes in his last two outings, his form is peaking at the right time. He is currently a dominant tee-to-green player, ranking second in the field over the last 32 rounds. If you`re looking for a player with winning-level ball striking at attractive longer odds, Bradley should be on your betting card.
Additional Notable Bets
- Gordon: Make the cut parlay: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104)
- Harris English is enjoying a career-best year and has a perfect record of making the cut in all nine of his U.S. Open appearances. Tommy Fleetwood has not missed a cut this season and hasn`t even been outside the Top 40 after 36 holes in his last 11 starts. Combining these two players for a make-the-cut parlay feels quite secure.
- Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140)
- The odds are short, but this bet might still be undervalued. Since January 2024, Scheffler has finished in the top five in 19 out of 31 starts, a remarkable rate that includes 10 victories. Unlike many short-odd markets, this one is strongly supported by statistical data. Scheffler is incredibly consistent, rarely posts a poor round, and his ball-striking alone is often sufficient to keep him near the top of the leaderboard, even if his putter is cold.
- Tyler Fulghum: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120)
- Dustin Johnson famously won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016, but that feels like a distant memory now. Since his move to LIV Golf in 2022, Johnson has not come close to contending in major championships. His best finish in 10 major starts since 2023 is a T31 at last year`s Open Championship. He has missed the cut five times during this period, including both the Masters and the PGA Championship this year.
- Marks: Rory McIlroy to miss the cut (+290)
- McIlroy has not appeared to be the same player since winning the Masters. He shot a 78 in the second round of the Canadian Open and did not perform well at Quail Hollow. His issues with the driver seem genuine, and his iron play hasn`t been stellar either. One might wonder if he has lost some of his competitive edge after achieving the career grand slam.
- Marks: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190)
- Aberg recently came close to winning the Canadian Open, and I believe there`s good value in betting on him for a Top 20 finish at plus money. He drives the ball as well as anyone on tour, and his last five rounds have all been in the 60s, indicating strong current form.
- Marks: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170)
- Straka is having the best season of his career, highlighted by a third-place finish at the Memorial Tournament and two wins already this year. His strengths in ball-striking give him the potential to perform exceptionally well on this course. Straka ranks first in greens in regulation, fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, second in strokes gained: approach, and is in the top 10 for driving accuracy.
