On Sunday, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will compete for the Wimbledon championship. This match comes just one month after their intense clash at the French Open, where Alcaraz emerged victorious. Alcaraz is also the two-time defending champion at Wimbledon. Will his recent win and Wimbledon history give him an advantage? Our experts share their thoughts on potential paths to victory for each player.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Sinner?
D`Arcy Maine: Alcaraz has demonstrated his capability to win under immense pressure and understands what it takes to claim the Wimbledon title. Following his semifinal victory over Taylor Fritz, Fritz praised Alcaraz`s adaptability and his talent for winning in various ways, making adjustments during the match. These qualities were crucial in his French Open win against Sinner and will be equally important on Sunday. With a perfect 5-0 record in major finals, Alcaraz exhibits remarkable calm and resilience for a 22-year-old. If he can effectively counter Sinner`s shots using his extensive variety, he has a strong chance of winning.
Bill Connelly: My advice remains the same as before the French Open final: keep attacking and going for winners. The threshold against Sinner is roughly hitting winners on over 20% of points. In their Paris match, Alcaraz was below this (12.9%) in the first two sets but significantly above (21.7%, 25% in the fifth) in the later sets. If you play passively, Sinner will wear you down. Alcaraz hasn`t been consistently sharp at Wimbledon this year, dropping sets in four matches and only exceeding the 20% winner rate in his two straight-sets victories. However, he has a proven ability to perform when it matters most – winning all five of his major finals. I anticipate he will play aggressively on Sunday.
Simon Cambers: Alcaraz should stick to his approach: find a path to victory using whatever strategy is necessary. Sinner hits the ball with significant power from both sides, so Alcaraz`s key is to employ his varied game. His drop shot will be vital, as will incorporating serve-and-volley when opportunities arise. Crucially, he needs to serve as effectively as he did against Fritz in the semifinals. A strong first serve reduces pressure on his second serve, which Sinner is adept at attacking. Alcaraz holds an advantage in movement on grass, and he should capitalize on this by moving forward when possible. Implementing these tactics will allow him to dictate the match.
What can Sinner do to defeat Alcaraz?
D`Arcy Maine: Sinner needs to have faith in his abilities. His elbow appears fine, suggesting the challenge is primarily mental. This is his first Wimbledon final, occurring shortly after his loss in Paris, so nerves and doubts are understandable, especially given he hasn`t defeated Alcaraz since 2023. How he manages these potential doubts will be critical. Just as he did against Novak Djokovic on Friday, when he fought back after being a break down in the third set – winning long rallies and halting Djokovic`s momentum to take five consecutive games – Sinner must bring that same resilience, and more, against Alcaraz. Apart from his match against Grigor Dimitrov, Sinner has been dominant, not dropping a set throughout the tournament. He possesses the necessary game and talent, and his movement on grass improves with each match. He seemed to cover the entire court against Djokovic. If he can maintain the level he`s shown for most of the fortnight and demonstrate similar resilience and mental toughness, he has a real opportunity.
Bill Connelly: Sinner must excel on his serve. While Alcaraz`s serving has improved throughout the tournament, his return game can be inconsistent. In the sets Alcaraz lost at Wimbledon, he allowed opponents to serve almost as effectively as he did. This was evident against Fritz in the semifinal, where Fritz won 83% of service points in the second set and 74% in the tiebreaker of the fourth. Against Djokovic, arguably the greatest returner ever, Sinner landed 74% of his first serves and won 77% of points on serve. He nearly defeated Alcaraz at the French Open despite landing only 54% of his first serves; controlling the game on serve by raising this percentage to typical levels will significantly help him.
Simon Cambers: Sinner should reflect on how far he has advanced and embrace the role of the underdog. The pressure to win a third consecutive title likely weighs more on Alcaraz than the pressure on Sinner in his first Wimbledon final, which could help alleviate some mental stress for Sinner. His powerful groundstrokes enable him to hit through any opponent, and he will feel confident if he gets opportunities to attack Alcaraz`s second serve. It`s remarkable how quickly Sinner recovered from the profound disappointment of holding match points against Alcaraz in the Roland Garros final to reach the Wimbledon final. Perhaps the elbow issue against Dimitrov inadvertently helped, shifting his focus to his physical condition and allowing his tennis to flow freely, rather than dwelling on the mental impact of Paris. If he returns Alcaraz`s first serve effectively, he`ll have a strong chance. The grass being harder this year due to dry weather also benefits his game. Naturally, he`ll need to serve well himself, and approaching the net slightly more than usual could help keep Alcaraz behind the baseline.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: The victor will be the player who is in the best physical condition on match day, following two weeks of demanding grass-court tennis under pressure. Currently, Alcaraz holds a psychological advantage, but as we`ve seen in the Big Three rivalries over two decades, similar shifts can occur in this exceptional new rivalry. Alcaraz currently has the upper hand on grass and in their head-to-head record, but Sinner can change this narrative on Sunday, particularly if his elbow is not an issue and he feels more comfortable moving on the grass by the end of the tournament. Tennis is fortunate to have these two athletes leading the sport`s future, and I eagerly anticipate watching this match. While the French Open final was incredibly difficult to surpass, let`s see what these two remarkable talents can deliver.
D`Arcy Maine: Sinner possesses greater motivation, and likely more confidence and physical stamina, than he did at the French Open. However, Alcaraz`s experience will prove beneficial during the match`s crucial moments. While I don`t expect it to reach the five-hour mark like their Paris encounter, it could easily extend to a deciding fifth set, which significantly favors Alcaraz. He boasts an outstanding 14-1 record in five-set matches and is 10-1 in matches lasting over three hours and 50 minutes, compared to Sinner`s 0-7 record in such lengthy contests. My prediction is Alcaraz in five thrilling, highlight-reel sets.
Bill Connelly: On grass and clay, the natural surfaces where Alcaraz has historically held a clear advantage over Sinner and the rest of the field, Sinner has rapidly closed the gap. He actually won more points than Alcaraz in their intense French Open match. Although he appeared injured and shaky against Dimitrov in the fourth round, Sinner has been nearly flawless since. Alcaraz`s peak performance level is arguably higher than almost anything we`ve witnessed, and his ability to produce absolute perfection precisely when needed in Paris was breathtaking. Yet, Sinner`s consistency is remarkable, and he appears to still be improving. My prediction is Sinner in four sets.
Simon Cambers: I initially predicted Alcaraz would win the tournament, which wasn`t a bold choice given his two consecutive titles here. He has consistently demonstrated why he is arguably the best grass-court player in the world; his movement is unparalleled, he expertly blends his shots, and his charisma instantly wins over the crowd. Sinner is a phenomenal player who hits the ball harder than anyone. However, on grass, the nuances of the game are better suited to Alcaraz`s style. The match could well be lengthy, but Alcaraz`s record of winning their last five encounters provides a significant psychological advantage. Even though Sinner has done exceptionally well to move past the disappointment of Paris, Alcaraz carries the mental boost of having won that match from match points down, a memory he can draw upon if needed. It might go to five sets, but I anticipate Alcaraz winning in four tightly contested sets.
