Despite their prominence in women`s tennis recently, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have surprisingly never met in a Grand Slam final. This will remain the case, as they are set to compete in the semifinals of the French Open on Thursday.
Their head-to-head record stands at 12 matches, with Swiatek holding an 8-4 advantage overall and a dominant 5-1 lead on clay courts. However, Sabalenka claimed victory in their most recent encounter and has shown slightly stronger form earlier this spring season, including a win in Madrid and a finalist appearance in Stuttgart.
In contrast, four-time French Open winner Swiatek reached the semifinals in Madrid but experienced early exits in Stuttgart and Rome. Her recent form saw her rankings dip outside the top four, which is why this highly anticipated match is occurring before the championship final.
Let`s explore the pathways to victory for each player in this semifinal clash.
Sabalenka`s Path to Victory
Firstly, she holds the world No. 1 ranking. Sabalenka advanced to the semifinals dropping zero sets, with only Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals pushing her to a tiebreak. Overcoming Zheng was particularly significant given Zheng`s victory over her in Rome previously. Considering Swiatek hasn`t consistently displayed her peak form this year, Sabalenka likely enters this match as the slight favorite.
Sabalenka`s serve, historically a vulnerability, has transformed into a major asset. The Belarusian player has delivered 25 aces across her five matches, posing a significant challenge to Swiatek`s return game. When returning herself, Sabalenka positions herself aggressively near or even inside the baseline, intending to exert immense pressure on Swiatek`s serve, which has shown some inconsistency this year, particularly on the ad side.
Moreover, Sabalenka possesses a strong desire to claim the Roland Garros title, which would complement her two Australian Open and one US Open championships. Despite a slightly hesitant start in her opening match, she demonstrated her characteristic resolve and skill to defeat Zheng, and this drive will undoubtedly fuel her ambition to reach the final.
Swiatek`s Strengths for the Semifinal
Her unparalleled record at this tournament is a key factor. Swiatek`s statistics at Roland Garros are truly remarkable, boasting a 40-2 win-loss record. Only Rafael Nadal achieved 40 wins faster, doing so in one fewer match. Swiatek is a four-time champion here and is currently on a 26-match winning streak at the event, trailing only Chris Evert`s record of 29 consecutive wins from 1979-1981. Should Swiatek win the title again, she would make history as the first woman to secure four consecutive French Open championships.
While this season hasn`t consistently met Swiatek`s exceptionally high expectations, she came within a single point of reaching the Australian Open final. Crucially, on clay, she remains arguably the world`s leading player. Her comeback victory against Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, especially after being down 6-1, 2-0, might represent a significant turning point for her season. Despite not hitting her absolute peak consistently, she uniquely possesses the knowledge and skill to deliver her finest tennis on clay when the pressure is on.
Her commanding 5-1 head-to-head advantage against Sabalenka on clay will also provide her with confidence. She has the reassurance of knowing that her peak performance level is typically sufficient to secure a win against this opponent on this surface.
Prediction
This contest evokes comparisons to seasons where Rafael Nadal might not have been at his absolute peak entering Paris but consistently found his top form to triumph (though Novak Djokovic did manage to defeat him here occasionally). If Swiatek performs at her highest level, she is the favorite. Sabalenka, while strong, hasn`t been entirely without flaws on clay. Swiatek`s strategic adjustment of her return position against Elena Rybakina indicates her re-emergence of crucial in-match problem-solving skills. Roland Garros is Swiatek`s territory on clay, and she has the capability to win even a closely fought match.
