Oakmont is historically one of the toughest U.S. Open venues. Only 23 players have finished under par in its nine prior stagings, with winners sometimes finishing over par. Known for its challenging ankle-high rough and incredibly fast greens, Oakmont demands precision and patience, embodying the true spirit of the U.S. Open. Jon Rahm describes it as a difficult but fair test where “a lot of unfortunate things are going to happen.”
Will World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler continue his dominant run and secure the third leg of the career Grand Slam? Can Masters champion Rory McIlroy overcome recent issues with his driving accuracy? Who are the potential dark horses ready to make a surprise run for the U.S. Open trophy this Sunday?
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler enters the U.S. Open as the clear favorite, continuing a dominant streak that includes three wins in his last four starts and a third major title at the PGA Championship. His performance has been exceptional, gaining an average of 14 strokes on the field over his recent starts. He leads the tour in key ballstriking and driving metrics and has significantly improved his putting, now ranking among the top 25.
While he faced some driver inconsistency at the PGA Championship, he appeared to resolve it in his subsequent victory. The main questions for Scheffler at Oakmont might involve the famously vexing greens. Though his putting has improved, these fast, complex surfaces could challenge even his refined stroke. However, given his current form and overall game, he is undoubtedly the player everyone is chasing.
What about Rory McIlroy?
Rory McIlroy`s form has been inconsistent since his Masters victory, which completed the career Grand Slam. This slump appears linked to persistent issues with his driver, possibly stemming from equipment changes after a nonconforming club was identified post-Masters. His inability to consistently find fairways has been costly, particularly at recent events like Quail Hollow and the RBC Canadian Open, where his driving accuracy numbers were unusually low.
Beyond technical issues, McIlroy has spoken openly about finding motivation more challenging after achieving his long-sought major goal. He admits it`s harder to maintain the same intensity in practice and that subsequent wins might not carry the same weight as his Masters triumph. While he is trying different drivers this week, success at Oakmont, with its demanding fairways, will require him to quickly regain control off the tee. The mental aspect and equipment adjustments make his prospects at Oakmont uncertain, suggesting it might take a few more weeks for him to return to his peak performance.
Defending Champion Bryson DeChambeau
Bryson DeChambeau, the defending champion, has quietly built an impressive record in recent majors, securing six top-six finishes in his last nine starts, including two runner-up performances and his win last year. He is expected to be a strong contender again at Oakmont, a course that presents challenges that suit his game.
While he was able to overcome hitting only half the fairways at Pinehurst last year by excelling in putting and hitting greens, Oakmont will likely demand greater accuracy off the tee. DeChambeau is known as one of the best putters, which will be a significant asset on Oakmont`s notoriously difficult greens. However, his approach game, which sometimes faltered in previous majors, will be a critical factor in his bid for a second consecutive U.S. Open title, especially as he is reportedly using new irons this week.
How will Oakmont play?
Expectations for Oakmont are high for a truly demanding test, a return to the U.S. Open`s reputation for presenting golf`s toughest challenge. While recent U.S. Opens have seen winning scores well under par, players and fans alike often prefer the “carnage” associated with traditional challenging setups, where surviving is key.
The course features dense, “juicy” rough reportedly set at 5 inches, which will penalize errant tee shots severely. Combined with greens that are expected to become extremely firm and slick as the week progresses – potentially faster than any others seen this season outside of Augusta National – Oakmont will demand exceptional patience and discipline. Players like Justin Thomas emphasize that even small mistakes off the tee, around the greens, or putting can lead to rapid score increases. While some believe modern technology and player skill might overcome the challenge more than in the past, the consensus, shared by players like Xander Schauffele, is that a score near or even over par could easily be enough to claim the championship trophy, reflecting the members` desire for the course to play tough.
Dark Horse Picks
Identifying potential dark horses for Oakmont, Harris English presents a compelling case. Coming off his best major finish (T2 at the PGA Championship) and with consistent top-12 results in his past four significant events, English also boasts a solid U.S. Open track record with three top-eight finishes in his last five starts. His game, characterized by keeping the ball in the fairway and strong putting, seems well-suited for Oakmont`s demands.
Another player to watch is Keegan Bradley. Ranked highly by course fit models for his accuracy off the tee (top-20 strokes gained) and strong approach play (top-15 strokes gained), Bradley possesses the statistical profile to contend at Oakmont. Currently listed with long odds, a strong performance this week could significantly boost his profile, especially in discussions about the U.S. Ryder Cup captaincy.
