Mastering Golf Betting in 2025: Tips and PGA Championship Picks

By Pamela Maldonado

Wagering on golf presents a captivating yet challenging puzzle, much like facing a crucial short putt under pressure with an audience. There are numerous ways to place bets on a tournament, but simply betting on outright winners without a strategy is likely to deplete your bankroll quickly.

Instead, here is a comprehensive guide on how to construct your betting portfolio like a seasoned bettor, balancing potential gains with potential losses to ensure you remain competitive through the final round.

When engaging in golf betting, three key factors are typically considered: course suitability, current form, and historical performance at the venue.

• Course suitability pertains to how well a golfer`s skills match the course design – whether it favors powerful hitters, demands precise ball-striking, or emphasizes putting proficiency.
• Current form analyzes recent outcomes, momentum, and confidence levels – a player who is striking the ball well from tee to green in recent events is generally more appealing than one struggling with their swing.
• Course history reflects a comfort level – some players consistently perform well at specific courses, perhaps due to the turf type or positive memories from past successes. The ideal scenario is when all three elements align. However, effective betting involves identifying the best value, and sometimes prioritizing one factor over the others can provide an advantage.

Exploring Your Betting Options

Golf wagering extends beyond merely selecting the champion. Numerous betting alternatives exist, varying in risk level. By structuring your bets effectively, you can still achieve profitable results even if your outright favorite falters.

Here is a brief overview of the most common types of wagers:

Outright Winner

This is the traditional bet on which player will hoist the trophy on Sunday. Due to the large fields in golf tournaments, the odds for outright winners are often very attractive – but this also signifies they are challenging to predict correctly. Holding a ticket with 30-1 odds is exciting, but relying solely on outright winners can leave your finances looking sparse, like the dense rough at a U.S. Open, on many weekends.

Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes

Consider these as more conservative bets, with Top 20 wagers offering the highest probability of success. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they simply need to finish within a specified rank. A Top-20 bet at +120 might not seem thrilling initially, but consistently cashing these will sustain your bankroll while you allocate smaller amounts to outright winner bets.

A golfer with 30-1 odds to win has an implied probability of winning around 3.2%. Compare this to a Top-20 bet at +200, which has an implied probability of 33%. This is a significant difference. Consequently, it is advisable to wager less on longer odds and more on wagers with higher probability.

First-Round Leader

This type of bet adds an element of immediate excitement. Instead of following a full four-day tournament, you only need your chosen golfer to be leading after 18 holes. As first-round leader odds are frequently 20-1 or greater, these are typically bet in fractions of a unit. Factors such as early tee times, calm weather conditions, and players known for aggressive scoring are important considerations for first-round leader betting. If you favor a player to potentially win the event, it makes sense to risk a small amount on them starting strongly in the opening round. If this bet hits, you could potentially cover the cost of your other bets for the tournament.

Head-to-Head Matchups

While betting on outright winners is like aiming for the pin, matchup bets are akin to a safe shot to the middle of the green. You are simply selecting one golfer to perform better than another, either for a single round or across the entire tournament. This offers a more controlled betting approach. Betting on the full tournament matchup is often preferred as it considers the overall performance over four days, rather than the higher variability of a single round. Three-ball matchups, involving three players, are also available. These offer longer odds but introduce more risk by adding a third competitor.

Props and Majors-Only Markets

Major championships provide an extensive selection of unique betting opportunities. Some are available weekly, while others are exclusive to the year`s biggest tournaments:

• Top American, Top European, etc.: Betting on the highest finishing player from a specific region.
• Will there be a hole-in-one?: A straightforward bet on whether an ace will occur. Always entertaining and tempting.
• Lowest round, highest round: Betting on the lowest or highest score recorded in a single round.
• Make the cut parlays: Combining multiple players to successfully make the cut and play the weekend rounds.

Structuring Your Betting Portfolio and Managing Bet Size

Placing bets randomly hoping for a big win is not a viable strategy; it is a quick way to exhaust your funds before the weekend. If you are wagering the same amount on every bet, it is equivalent to using a putter from the fairway – inefficient and ineffective.

Instead, a recommended approach is to build your betting card around two or three primary players and incorporate different bet types to balance risk and reward. Given the significant variation in golf odds, the size of your bets should be adjusted proportionally to the risk involved.

This strategy is effective because Top-20 bets provide consistency, winning more frequently and helping to maintain your bankroll. Top-10 and Top-5 wagers might be sized at around 0.5 units, while outright winner bets, being harder to hit, could range from 0.2 to 0.25 units. First-round leaders carry higher risk but offer high rewards, allowing for smaller bet sizes while providing a chance for a significant win. Distributing your bets across different markets keeps you invested throughout the tournament. Even if your outright favorite struggles, your Top-20 bet might still cash. Longer odds necessitate smaller bet sizes, as the implied probability of success is lower. Betting too much on long shots can lead to rapid losses during cold streaks.

If you are betting on multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total stake needs to be carefully managed to avoid overexposure to any single golfer. As you add more players, you must adjust individual bet sizes downward to keep your overall risk in check.

The PGA Tour`s Premier Events: The Four Majors and Golf`s `Fifth Major`

Like any form of wagering, betting on golf requires discipline and should be viewed as a way to enhance your enjoyment of watching the sport. Golf betting can be demanding; expecting to hit an outright winner every week is unrealistic. However, by strategically structuring your bets, managing risk effectively, and diversifying your exposure across various markets, you can improve your chances of profitability and maintain excitement throughout the weekend.

Here are some of the significant tournaments:

• PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, N.C.)
• U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
• The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
• Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
• The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)

With one of the strongest fields, a substantial prize purse, and the iconic TPC Sawgrass as the venue, The Players Championship is considered golf`s closest equivalent to a major. While not officially designated as a major, its drama, history, and the famous island green on the 17th hole make it one of the standout tournaments of the year.

Wagers for the 2025 PGA Championship

Quail Hollow demands a balance of bold play and strategic thinking. Success here requires taking calculated risks off the tee and skillfully handling challenging shots when the course presents difficulties. It rewards players who know when to attack and when to exercise caution. For this PGA Championship, the focus is on players who are not afraid to take chances while maintaining composure under pressure. The golfers who perform well at Quail Hollow are typically those who can drive the ball long, hit precise long irons, and recover effectively when they miss the fairway or green.

This year`s event feels like a compelling matchup between Rory McIlroy and players from LIV Golf. McIlroy possesses a strong history at the course, excellent current form, and intimate knowledge of the layout. He is widely regarded as having a home-field advantage here. Meanwhile, players like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm from LIV Golf arrive with something to prove, challenging McIlroy on a course where he has a dominant record. Beyond skill, this adds an element of pride and the desire to make a statement. If there is one venue where Rory is expected to assert his dominance and demonstrate his mastery, it is Quail Hollow.

Let`s analyze the upcoming second major championship of golf`s calendar.

My Recommended Bets

Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and Win (+475)

Selecting the second favorite might seem unoriginal, but McIlroy at Quail Hollow is akin to putting a champion back in his preferred environment. He is intimately familiar with every aspect of this course, having secured four victories here, including his first PGA Championship title in 2010 and the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. His combination of driving distance and proficiency on par-5s makes him naturally suited to the layout. Quail Hollow rewards aggressive drivers who can shape their shots, and McIlroy`s high fade is perfectly aligned with the course`s demands.

Although Rory recently triumphed at the 2025 Masters, showcasing his ability to perform under significant pressure and manage the fluctuations of a major championship, his success indicates peak form. His putting, often considered a potential weakness, has been reliable. If he maintains this momentum, he poses a significant threat. His approach play has been exceptional, ranking fourth in strokes gained in the last 32 rounds. Quail Hollow`s greens can be challenging, but when McIlroy finds his rhythm, his confident stroke on fast surfaces is a valuable asset. He ranks second in strokes gained from tee to green and excels with long irons, which is crucial on a course exceeding 7,500 yards. His elite ball-striking and familiarity with the course make him a high-confidence selection for both a Top 5 finish and an outright win.

For the Masters, the suggestion was to wait for potentially better live odds after Round 1. For this event, taking the pre-tournament odds is recommended due to his historical dominance here. If the outright odds feel too short, the Top 5 wager is a solid alternative.

Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)

There are few players who inspire confidence for a Top 5 finish like Rory and Scottie. Scheffler epitomizes consistency. He has accumulated numerous top finishes in elite tournaments throughout the season, including three Top 5s in his last four starts, one of which was a dominant win at the RBC Heritage with a remarkable 31-under-par total score. His tee-to-green game is currently considered the best on tour, and he leads in total strokes gained. This level of consistency translates well, even to a course like Quail Hollow, where he is making his PGA Tour debut. While this might seem risky, his form justifies it.

His recent improvement in putting is a major positive factor. Even when he is not performing at his absolute peak, his exceptional ball-striking keeps him in contention.

Considering his upward trending form after a win and his ability to remain composed in major championship environments, backing Scottie for a Top 5 finish at plus odds represents a calculated and appealing wager.

Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)

Betting on Rahm for a Top 20 finish at the PGA Championship appears logical. Quail Hollow is well-suited to his playing style. He drives the ball long, is precise with his long irons, and possesses the ability to navigate challenging conditions. He ranks ninth in driving distance and eleventh in accuracy, allowing him to hit powerful drives while keeping the ball in play, which is exactly what this course demands. Unlike Augusta, where he unexpectedly lost strokes on approach (only the second time this year), Quail Hollow`s setup allows him to rely on his consistent tee-to-green performance without being severely penalized for an occasional off-week with his irons. Rahm`s long game is typically very strong, and this course configuration lets him leverage that strength. The -105 odds feel favorable for a player who has finished in the top 15 in five of his last ten major championship appearances.

Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)

Conners consistently impresses with his play. His tee-to-green game is excellent, ranking sixth in the field, which is half the battle at Quail Hollow. His driving accuracy (17th) is a significant advantage here, particularly when the rough is thick and penalizing. Furthermore, his long iron play, especially from 200 to 225 yards (eighth), gives him a distinct edge on the longer par-4s. While his putting can be inconsistent, he does not need a flawless week on the greens to secure a top 20 finish. At +200, there is significant value on a player who is well-suited to this course setup and is currently on a streak of Top 20 finishes, with six in his last seven starts. The implied probability at +200 seems too low for a player of his quality performing well on this type of course.

Full Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups

Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau

This matchup favors reliability. McIlroy`s game is consistently strong over four rounds at a demanding venue like Quail Hollow. DeChambeau, in contrast, can be more unpredictable, as seen at Augusta where he performed exceptionally for three days before struggling on the final day. When DeChambeau`s driving becomes erratic or his putting falters, his scores can quickly deteriorate. McIlroy`s extensive positive history at Quail Hollow and his well-rounded game give him the advantage. Bryson might hit the ball farther, but Rory`s combination of distance and accuracy makes him the more dependable player over the course of four days.

Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa

On a course stretching over 7,500 yards, Rahm`s ability to combine long driving with accuracy is invaluable. Even when Rahm isn`t playing his absolute best, he typically manages to grind out a respectable finish. Morikawa, however, can struggle significantly if his putting or short game is not performing well. This potential for high volatility makes him a riskier choice in a head-to-head matchup over four rounds. This bet favors Rahm`s powerful and accurate driving combined with his ability to minimize mistakes, which is essential for success at Quail Hollow.

Betting Approach for Bryson DeChambeau

You might be tempted to bet on DeChambeau winning this tournament, and that perspective is understandable. His high-power driving style is perfectly suited for this course, and if he can maintain control, he has the ability to dominate Quail Hollow.

However, for some bettors, the odds for a Top 10 finish at +110 might not offer sufficient value given the potential inconsistency. DeChambeau`s performance can fluctuate rapidly; when he`s in form, he can be outstanding, but a single errant shot can significantly impact his round. A cautious approach might involve waiting to assess his performance in Round 1 before placing a bet. If he demonstrates good form early on, you might find more favorable live odds for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish.