For the second consecutive year, discussions about Max Verstappen`s future with Red Bull were a significant topic at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
Last year in March, Verstappen seemed close to leaving the team due to considerable internal turmoil and conflicts within Red Bull`s management and his own group. Although that difficult period subsided, and Verstappen secured his fourth consecutive drivers` championship, the rumors about his future only paused temporarily.
Despite holding a contract with Red Bull through the end of 2028, speculation persists because his agreement includes specific exit clauses.
One reported escape route last year was a clause allowing Verstappen to leave Red Bull if motorsport advisor Helmut Marko were to depart the team.
Why the Speculation?
This year, the renewed speculation stems from Red Bull`s somewhat inconsistent performance early in the season. Many observers, including Marko himself, believe that a driver of Verstappen`s caliber won`t tolerate a car that prevents him from contending for further championships for long.
Another, more typical contractual clause reportedly allows Verstappen to terminate his contract at the season`s conclusion if he is not ranked among the top three in the Drivers` Championship standings by the summer break.
Whether this scenario becomes likely has fluctuated wildly through the first five races, sometimes even between sessions. Verstappen has frequently appeared frustrated, struggling during practice before dramatically finding pace in qualifying and the races.
Following Red Bull`s least competitive weekend of the season in Bahrain, where Verstappen finished sixth just a week after his surprising victory over the leading McLarens in Japan, Helmut Marko expressed `great concern` regarding the 27-year-old`s future at the team.
Although Verstappen`s pole position and second-place finish in Jeddah, which solidified his third place in the championship standings, should have eased those worries, numerous comments made during the weekend added further intriguing details to the broader discussion about his future.
Mercedes` Interest
During Red Bull`s off-track troubles last year, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff openly pursued Verstappen as a potential replacement for Lewis Hamilton, who is moving to Ferrari.
Wolff ultimately abandoned his attempt to sign Verstappen for the 2025 season, with Mercedes opting instead for Italian teenager Kimi Antonelli alongside George Russell. However, the Austrian hinted at renewing his interest in the future.
The recent disturbances at Red Bull, coupled with the fact that Russell and Antonelli are only contracted until the end of the current season, have fueled speculation that Mercedes might be discreetly trying to attract Verstappen again.
Although Mercedes has struggled for competitiveness under the current regulations introduced in 2022, many predict they will be strong contenders when new engine and chassis rules come into effect next year.
This potential for future performance makes Mercedes a credible candidate to sign Verstappen, though Wolff is publicly refraining from confirming any interest this time.
Speaking in Jeddah on Saturday, he stated Mercedes `haven`t had a conversation` with Verstappen and repeated his earlier comment about not `flirting outside if I`m happy in the relationship,` referring to his satisfaction with his current driver pairing.
Despite Wolff`s public stance, few within the F1 paddock believe he would hesitate to pursue Verstappen if a genuine opportunity arose.
Aston Martin Link
Aston Martin is another team frequently linked with Verstappen. Recent Italian media reports suggested the Silverstone team was prepared to offer him a lucrative three-year deal worth £226 million.
Lawrence Stroll, Aston Martin`s owner, is determined to transform his team into a championship contender. He has already implemented significant changes, including building a new factory and recruiting Adrian Newey, Verstappen`s former colleague at Red Bull, as managing technical partner.
A complication for Aston Martin is that they already have two drivers, Fernando Alonso and Lawrence Stroll`s son Lance, under contract for the 2026 season.
Given that Lance is unlikely to leave while his father owns the team, signing Verstappen for 2026 would seemingly necessitate the end of 43-year-old Fernando Alonso`s driving career.
When asked in Saudi Arabia on Thursday if he viewed Verstappen as a threat to his 2026 seat, Alonso replied, “I don`t think so, as I have a contract for next year.”
Alonso further commented that after experiencing Aston Martin`s first car designed by Newey in 2026, he would be open to transitioning into a different role within the team, potentially paving the way for Verstappen.
During the team principals` press conference in Jeddah on Friday, Aston Martin chief Andy Cowell deliberately highlighted their contracted driver lineup for 2026, avoiding direct responses to questions about Verstappen.
We are extremely fortunate to have two experienced drivers signed for the coming two years. This allows me to concentrate solely on improving our operations and mastering the creation of a competitive race car.
Sabbatical?
Whispers in the paddock suggest that if Verstappen were to break his Red Bull contract, he might consider taking a sabbatical in 2026. This break would allow him to evaluate the competitive situation across teams before deciding on the best option for 2027 and future seasons.
It seems unlikely that a driver at the peak of his performance would step away for a year. However, Verstappen has frequently mentioned the demanding nature of the F1 calendar and his value for leisure time with family and friends.
Notably, if Verstappen pursued this path, Ferrari could emerge as a potential destination, especially as Lewis Hamilton`s contract there might conclude at the end of 2026.
Verstappen has previously described Ferrari as `an amazing team to race for,` but he also qualified this by stating his main priority is always to `be in the fastest car.`
Another possibility involves terminating his existing Red Bull contract and subsequently re-signing with them for a salary potentially exceeding his current reported £50 million per year.
This approach would also allow Verstappen to negotiate a new Red Bull contract solely for 2026, instead of extending to 2028, thereby preserving flexibility for his choices in 2027.
Verstappen`s View
When questioned about the situation in Jeddah on Thursday, Verstappen made it clear he was not interested in generating headlines.
Regarding the rumors about his future, Verstappen commented:
A lot of people are talking about it, except me.
He added:
I simply want to concentrate on my car and work with the team members. That is currently my sole focus in F1. I feel very relaxed.
Ultimately, if Red Bull can consistently deliver the level of performance seen in Saudi Arabia, the discussions about his future will likely cease, as he`ll be fully engaged in pursuing a fifth consecutive title.
Nevertheless, the fact that both Mercedes and Aston Martin are explicitly keeping the door open for potentially signing Verstappen next season is significant, suggesting they still hold some prospect of achieving this.
It`s reasonable to assume that if Red Bull`s performance continues to be inconsistent, the F1 world will be closely watching Verstappen`s position in the driver standings in the coming months.
