Lando Norris holds pole position for the Monaco Grand Prix, giving him a significant chance to clinch his first victory at the iconic circuit. However, a new rule mandating multiple tyre changes is expected to introduce unpredictability, potentially leading to `chaos` in Sunday`s race.
Historically, the pole sitter in Monaco has a strong advantage, winning in 16 of the last 21 races. To secure the win and avoid joining the select few who started first but didn`t triumph, Norris must contend with local favourite Charles Leclerc, his teammate Oscar Piastri, and navigate the strategic challenge posed by the requirement for two mandatory pit stops.
Following last year`s static race where the top 10 finished exactly as they started with virtually no overtaking, the FIA introduced a rule in February requiring drivers to make at least two tyre changes during the race.
This regulation shifts the emphasis heavily onto strategy and is expected to encourage drivers to push harder, increasing the likelihood of incidents and Safety Car periods.
“I think there will be more opportunities for everyone. But that`s how it is. Formula 1 has done this to try and create more of a spectacle,” said Norris.
He added, “Of course, from my current position [on pole], I probably don`t agree with the change. But I don`t make the rules, so we`ll see. However, I do believe it creates more chances for everyone, whether you start first or last.”
Norris concluded, “I think you can be more optimistic, which is great for you, but not so good for me. So let`s wait and see how it unfolds.”
Leclerc aims to become the first driver since Nico Rosberg in 2015 to win the Monaco Grand Prix two years in a row.
If he can match Norris`s pace, the Ferrari driver will face strategic choices: attempt an undercut by pitting earlier, or run longer hoping for a well-timed Safety Car that allows for a `cheap` pit stop. This strategic `game` will influence the entire field.
“I think it`s going to be a bit chaotic, but we`ll see how it unfolds. I expect many strategic battles, and we`ll see who manages it best,” Leclerc stated.
He added, “We might even face pressure from cars we don`t necessarily expect from further down the grid, which could make things very interesting.”
The possibility of Red Flags significantly impacts strategy. Bernie Collins explained that if a Red Flag occurs, drivers don`t necessarily need to have *made* a pit stop, as the rule is about using three different tyre *sets*. For example, a Lap 1 Red Flag could mean teams effectively use two sets (starting set + pit lane change set), needing only one more stop. A second Red Flag could eliminate the need for further stops altogether, a scenario that could avoid the mandatory pit stops outlined in the new rule.
Numerous Strategic Scenarios
The potential scenarios are vast, but successfully navigating strategy hinges on avoiding traffic after pitting and preventing both undercut (being passed by a car that pitted earlier) and overcut (being passed by a car that stayed out longer).
This is particularly challenging for cars not near the front. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella acknowledged that the implications of the two mandatory stops are “much wider than we initially thought.”
Stella explained, “These implications also mean that teams starting at the front or the back can make significantly different strategic choices.”
He continued, “Furthermore, factors like red flags, Safety Cars, and team strategy – where teammates might assist each other – could lead to vastly different outcomes.”
Stella concluded that strategy meetings for this race are lengthier than usual because “the scenarios to consider are definitely many more than what you normally consider – not only in Monaco, but in any other race that we need to prepare.”
Will Teammate Piastri Assist Norris?
Oscar Piastri is currently 13 points ahead of Norris in the championship after seven races. However, a victory for Norris could significantly reduce this gap.
One potential strategy involves teams using their second car to impede rivals who have just made pit stops, leveraging the difficulty of overtaking on the Monaco circuit.
For instance, Ferrari might consider this tactic, especially as Leclerc starts second and Lewis Hamilton is seventh due to a grid penalty for impeding Max Verstappen.
When asked if he would support Norris to ensure a McLaren victory, Piastri humorously asked his teammate, “How much are you going to pay me?”
He then added seriously, “I want to win the race too. So, let`s see what happens. I think it`s going to be quite a chaotic race, but we`ll find out.”
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella commented that the team aims to “always try to make decisions and let the race unfold in a natural way, so that our two drivers have their best opportunity to capitalise on their performance and on their efforts.”
Stella clarified, “We don`t anticipate deviating from this natural evolution of the race, unless it benefits both drivers.”
Strategy from the Rear
Drivers starting near the back of the grid are expected to consider pitting on the opening lap. This strategy aims to gain `clean air` on track and potentially undercut several competitors by pitting earlier.
The gamble here is that an ill-timed Safety Car could benefit drivers who haven`t pitted yet. However, for teams starting far down the grid, such as the Mercedes pair of George Russell (14th) and Kimi Antonelli (15th) after a poor qualifying session, it might be a risk worth taking.
Russell commented, “I think you will see half the drivers go one way and half the other. From this position, there`s not much you can do.”
He added, “Two pit stops isn`t typical for Monaco, but it`s normal in many other races, so there won`t be any major revelations [strategically].”
Russell lamented, “We were preparing as if starting from the front. We didn`t have strategy plans for P14 and P15. We are where we are, and that`s not good.”
