The 2025 Open Championship kicks off on Thursday at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. Xander Schauffele is the defending champion, while Shane Lowry previously triumphed on this course in 2019. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy, both winners of two out of the year`s first three majors, are among the top contenders. Will the sport`s biggest names dominate, or could a long shot emerge victorious? How will Royal Portrush play over the next four days? We delve into these and other key questions ahead of the 153rd Open.
Is Scottie Scheffler Still the Overwhelming Favorite?
Although the Open Championship is the only major where Scheffler hasn`t secured a top-three finish, links golf has not entirely stumped him. He boasts four top-25 finishes in as many starts, including a tie for seventh at Royal Troon last year. His world-class iron play and dramatically improved putting (ranking 22nd in Strokes Gained Putting this season) appear perfectly suited for links courses. Scheffler`s consistency, with 15 PGA Tour starts this season never outside the top 25 and ten consecutive top-10s, makes him a formidable contender.
However, as one analyst notes, there`s a subtle tension between Scheffler`s preference for “fair” courses and the unpredictable nature of links golf, which often borders on unfair. Scheffler seems to be embracing this unpredictability, finding Portrush`s pot bunkers relatively “fair” due to their design. Nevertheless, his putting remains crucial, especially after a recent performance at the Scottish Open where he lost nearly one and a half strokes to the field on the greens. Scheffler himself emphasizes that adjusting to green speed is paramount, asserting that “golf is still golf no matter where you`re playing.”
What to Expect from Rory McIlroy This Week?
Rory McIlroy`s last appearance at the Open Championship in Royal Portrush in 2019 was a disappointment. As the crowd favorite in his homeland, he seemed overwhelmed by expectations, starting with a quadruple-bogey on the first hole en route to a first-round 79. Yet, he demonstrated remarkable resilience, carding a 65 in the second round to nearly make the cut. This week, McIlroy admitted he was “a little surprised and a little taken aback” by the public`s expectations then, but he has learned to better manage his emotions.
Following a lull after his Masters victory, McIlroy`s game has sharpened, with a sixth-place tie at the Travelers Championship and a second-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. He also holds cherished memories of Royal Portrush, having set the course record of 61 as a 16-year-old. Currently, McIlroy appears more at ease on home soil, engaging with fans, and his game looks sharper than it has in months. Given his recent form, it would be more surprising if he isn`t in contention by the weekend.
Thoughts on Xander Schauffele`s Title Defense?
For reigning Open Champion Golfer of the Year Xander Schauffele, this tournament represents a final opportunity to salvage a season that, despite a perfect record of 12 made cuts and seven top-25 finishes, feels “incomplete” due to an eight-week absence from a painful rib injury. His best results have been an eighth-place tie at the Masters and the Scottish Open last week. His struggles to secure a win in 2025, after capturing two majors last season (the PGA Championship and The Open), can be attributed to his rankings: 112th in strokes gained off the tee and 138th in putting.
Despite this, Schauffele exhibits an ideal approach to links golf. He acknowledges its difficulty and unpredictability but embraces the challenge of enduring any conditions the course throws at him. He states that a “good attitude” towards bad weather is crucial. After a T-12 at the U.S. Open and a T-8 at the Scottish, Schauffele is clearly trending upwards. If the conditions become severe this weekend, Schauffele is one of the few players widely trusted to excel.
What to Know About Royal Portrush and Its Expected Play This Week?
How Royal Portrush plays will largely hinge on the weather and wind, given its exposed location at the northern tip of Northern Ireland. In 2019, the previous Open Championship held here saw exceptionally favorable scoring conditions for the first three rounds, allowing Lowry to record a course-record 63. However, Sunday brought torrential rain and strong winds, significantly altering play. Scheffler noted that weather is “probably the strongest part of the test,” and Schauffele added that even putting can be affected by the wind, requiring the eventual winner to be “an extremely well-rounded player.”
The course can be “gettable” (as seen with Lowry`s 63) but can also feel “impossible,” depending on wind strength and direction, demanding significant strategic decision-making. McIlroy, for instance, spent considerable time debating club choices during a practice round. Royal Portrush is unique among links courses for its more significant elevation changes, which blend ground game and air game challenges. Players who master the timing of each approach will likely be the ones contending for the Claret Jug on Sunday.
One Longer Shot Who Could Contend This Week?
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, recently described his game as “rubbish,” and it had been a while since he contended at a major, until his eighth-place tie at the PGA Championship in May. While his Open Championship track record isn`t stellar, his current form (eighth at the Rocket Classic, fourth at the Scottish Open) suggests a positive trajectory. If the weekend weather turns challenging, Fitzpatrick, as demonstrated by his U.S. Open victory at The Country Club, is more than capable of handling tough conditions.
Another potential dark horse is Justin Rose. Not only did he push McIlroy to a playoff at the Masters, but last year at Royal Troon, he was within two shots of Schauffele on the back nine, narrowly missing a win. Rose is also coming off an impressive finish at the Scottish Open, where a final round 7-under propelled him to sixth place. If Rose can summon one more major contention this week and end a 33-year drought for Englishmen at the Open, it would be an epic story.
