PGA Championship: Expert Picks and Betting Tips

The 2025 PGA Championship, the second major golf tournament of the year, is scheduled to take place from Thursday through Sunday at the challenging Quail Hollow Club. As anticipation builds, we`ve gathered insights from our panel of golf experts to predict who will emerge victorious. Additionally, our betting analysts offer their perspectives on where to find the best value in the market.

Expert Predictions for the Winner

Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. I believe certain players hit a period of peak form, and Rory is in one right now. Having completed his career Grand Slam, he returns to a course where he has won four times. It`s essentially his home ground, and I expect him to win again here.

Tory Barron: Justin Thomas. Perhaps influenced by recent results, I feel JT is ready to win the PGA Championship for a third time. After ending a nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff victory in April and securing a runner-up finish recently, his confidence (and putting) is strong for Quail Hollow, where he won in 2017. (Disclaimer: If Brooks Koepka wins the one time I don`t pick him, I`m switching allegiance to LIV Golf).

Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. How often are we going to underestimate the WORLD #1? People mistake his calm demeanor for a lack of competitive fire. The intense competitor within him will be burning. But once again, they will realize their mistake.

Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas. Something shifted for Thomas in October 2024. He tied for 2nd place and has climbed back to elite form since. He returns to the site of his first PGA Championship win… and he is poised to win here again.

Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy. Winning the Masters removed a significant burden. He could be playing his most relaxed golf in almost a decade, and a relaxed Rory is formidable. Plus, with four wins at Quail Hollow, he truly owns that course. Is anyone ready to discuss the Grand Slam again?

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy. Sometimes the easiest pick is the best pick. He got the Masters/Grand Slam monkey off his back and has been the world`s best golfer in 2025. Add in a course where he has won four times, which also favors long hitters, and he`s the clear choice.

Andy North: Shane Lowry. He has been playing exceptionally well lately, is a strong driver of the ball, and hits excellent iron shots.

Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau. If success requires distance off the tee, solid long-iron play, and consistent putting, Bryson is my pick. He will be motivated to prove his final round at the Masters was an anomaly and is coming off a win in the LIV Golf League. He has four top-six finishes in the last five majors, including runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship. He is ready to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his collection.

Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy. He arrives at the PGA Championship having already won this year`s two most significant events – The Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of constant questions and pressure are gone. He has confidence in every part of his game. He has mental, emotional, spiritual, and physical freedom.

Now he comes back to Quail Hollow, a venue where he holds the lowest scoring average on the PGA Tour among players with at least 20 rounds. Oh, and he has won here four times.

Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler by one stroke. I always support the Masters Champion at the PGA so we can talk about a potential Grand Slam this year.

Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy. It feels almost too simple given Rory`s recent play and success at Quail Hollow, but I cannot choose anyone else. Perhaps we are overly focused on the present – he just showed how difficult it is to win one major, let alone two consecutively – but everything about this week favors the player who has demonstrably been the best in the world this year.

Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau. Quail Hollow is a “big ballpark,” as the saying goes. This week, it`s also expected to be quite wet. DeChambeau`s length advantage will be amplified under these conditions, and I predict he will win.

Betting Roundtable Insights

Who is your top pick to win?

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host: Xander Schauffele (+2000). It`s difficult to overlook McIlroy or Scheffler, but their odds (+500 or lower) are quite high. If I`m looking beyond the top two, Schauffele is a strong contender. His disciplined and balanced game is well-suited for this tournament, characterized by long distances and deep competition.

David Gordon, ESPN Research: Shane Lowry (+4500). An argument can be made that Lowry should be ranked higher among top players, yet his odds don`t fully reflect this. If neither Rory nor Xander wins, I favor the player currently third in strokes gained: tee to green, who also has two top-six finishes in the last four PGA Championships.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Rory McIlroy (+475). I know he just won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is different; it`s his domain. The course perfectly matches his strengths – powerful drives and high long irons – which is why he has won here four times. He knows every detail of the course, and the layout is tailor-made for his playing style. It`s a short price, but when McIlroy is at Quail Hollow, he`s defending his territory.

What is your preferred bet for a top 10 finish?

Tyler Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550).

Aside from Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers tend to be less visible, which can create value in majors. Patrick Reed is another LIV player who has performed relatively well in majors since joining. He finished third at Augusta in April and tied for 2nd when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow in 2017.

David Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140)

DeChambeau has more top-five finishes (three) in PGA Championships since 2020 than any other player. His six top-five major finishes since 2020 have been at different venues, proving his adaptability. Length off the tee combined with shorter rough has benefited recent Quail Hollow winners. While I like Bryson for a top-five outright bet, I`m adding the safety of a top-10 pick.

Pamela Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190)

Rahm possesses length off the tee, precision with long irons, and doesn`t shy away from tough courses. Quail Hollow suits players who can handle long par 4s and the pressure of the Green Mile, qualities Rahm has in abundance. Even on a less-than-perfect day, Rahm`s baseline performance is higher than most. Even if his putting is cold, he remains a threat due to his approach play creating numerous good opportunities.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy specific bet?

Tyler Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200)

Finding an attractive plus-money bet on McIlroy is tough, but I`ll take this one. He isn`t typically a fast starter in majors, but this is his dominant course. Fresh off the Masters win, he might start quickly and play freely here.

David Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110)

Pam and Tyler have already explained the case for McIlroy well. While it feels challenging to bet against a player who just tied a PGA Tour scoring record, McIlroy has the advantage in course knowledge, length, and putting in this specific matchup.

Pamela Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200)

The hardest part is behind him – completing the career slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow feeling grounded, composed, and in control. Golf involves both mental and physical skills, and he has clarity and confidence. If he plays his natural game without forcing anything, his familiarity with the course means his focus will be sharp and his play methodical.

Who are your preferred long shots or value bets (100-1 odds or higher)?

Tyler Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500)

Finau`s recent form doesn`t strongly suggest he`ll contend, except for his driving distance. However, the odds are very appealing for a player of his talent. The PGA Championship, unlike other majors, is often the one most likely to produce a surprising first-time winner.

David Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500)

McCarthy tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and T-8 the year before. He is one of only three players with eight rounds of par or better at this course over the past two years (the others are Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). His lack of distance is a concern, but he clearly compensates for it here. His best finish this season was T-5 at Torrey Pines, a long course. I`ll take a chance on his putter staying hot.

Pamela Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000)

His current form is promising. Over his last four starts, Mitchell has posted five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a T-7 last week, indicating a strong upward trend. His ball-striking has been solid, showing significant tee-to-green gains. He also has two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, so +320 for a top-20 seems reasonable, with a small wager on +11000 for fun.

Are there any other bets that stand out to you?

David Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165)

Conners has won this market in four of the last five majors and six of the last eight, including being the low Canadian at the PGA Championship in both instances during that span. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season are only surpassed by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished T-13 and T-8 in the last two years at Quail Hollow.

Pamela Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele (Matchup Bet)

Thomas knows how to win at Quail Hollow. While Schauffele has the skills to contend, he doesn`t match up with Thomas`s approach game here. Thomas`s iron play is stronger, which gives him an edge on a course that rewards precise iron shots. In a contest of ball striking, JT`s consistency from tee-to-green makes the difference.