Ranking the top contenders at Wimbledon 2025

The arrival of Wimbledon on the tennis calendar signifies distinct phases for the men`s and women`s tours.

For the men, Wimbledon often proves to be the most predictable Grand Slam event. Over the past two decades, only 12 players have contested the gentlemen`s final. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic alone accounted for over half of these finalist spots. Djokovic, in particular, has reached the last six finals, winning four but losing the previous two to Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has triumphed in the last four Grand Slams held on natural surfaces (clay or grass). It seems reasonable to anticipate his presence in the final once again.

In contrast, the women`s competition tells a different story. While a clear hierarchy featuring Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff has dominated nine of the last ten hard-court and clay Slams, Wimbledon has seen seven different women claim the title in the last seven editions. The previous four years at the All England Club have produced 13 unique semifinalists. Grass appears to be the ultimate test of consistent greatness for men, while for women, it can often lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Consequently, the 2025 edition of this prestigious tournament presents some obvious narratives. Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner are the clear favorites in the men`s draw. However, on the women`s side, with both Sabalenka and Gauff facing challenging paths and the inherent unpredictability of grass, the outcome remains uncertain. Let`s examine the players most likely to make significant runs and potentially define the 2025 Wimbledon fortnight.

The favorites

Carlos Alcaraz

Odds: +125 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (quarterfinals)

Fresh off his victory in arguably the best Grand Slam final of the 2020s – his epic comeback against Sinner at the French Open – Alcaraz effortlessly navigated his only grass-court warm-up, defeating Jiri Lehecka to win at Queen`s Club a week ago.

Comparing any young player to the standards set by the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, Nadal), who each won at least 20 Slams and are arguably the three greatest male players of all time, feels unfair. Yet, Alcaraz makes these comparisons unavoidable. Nadal secured four Slam titles before turning 22, while Djokovic and Federer had only one each at that age. Alcaraz claimed his fifth just a month after his 22nd birthday. He may lack Sinner`s relentless consistency, but as demonstrated in the latter stages against Sinner in Paris, his peak performance and raw potential are unparalleled. His capacity to adapt and innovate in diverse conditions could position him as the favorite for every French Open and Wimbledon for the next decade.

Jannik Sinner

Odds: +190 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals)

Since mid-August, Sinner boasts a remarkable 48-4 record – with all three losses coming against Alcaraz and one against everyone else. He recently lost in three sets to Alexander Bublik in Halle, Germany, and is less proven on grass compared to other surfaces, though he reached the Wimbledon semifinals in 2023. Sinner is comfortably the world`s leading hard-court player and seems to improve with each tournament. His draw presents challenges, potentially facing Denis Shapovalov (2021 semifinalist) in the third round, Tommy Paul (2024 quarterfinalist) or Grigor Dimitrov (2014 semifinalist) in the fourth round, and Lorenzo Musetti (2024 semifinalist) or Ben Shelton (big server) in the quarterfinals before a potential clash with Djokovic and Alcaraz. While he faces a tough path, it`s hard to bet against him making a deep run.

Aryna Sabalenka

Odds: +240 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys or No. 9 Paula Badosa (quarterfinals)

Sabalenka`s 2025 season has been marked by strong performances leading to finals, but sometimes falling short of the ultimate victory. She has reached the final in seven of her ten tournaments but has lost four of her last six, including the Australian Open to Keys and the French Open to Gauff. She has reached the semifinals in her last two Wimbledon appearances. In a potential final preview, she overcame Elena Rybakina in Berlin recently, saving four match points in the final-set tiebreaker. Like Sinner, she faces a difficult path, potentially encountering Marketa Vondrousova (2023 champion), Emma Raducanu (local favorite), or McCartney Kessler (Nottingham champion) in the third round, Elina Svitolina (two-time semifinalist) in the fourth, Keys in the quarterfinals, and Jasmine Paolini (2024 finalist) in the semifinals. Despite this challenging draw, Sabalenka remains one of the most consistent forces on the women`s tour.

Novak Djokovic

Odds: +550 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (quarterfinals)

Just in case we needed a reminder of Djokovic`s incredibly high standards, the French Open provided it. In a 2025 season marked by more nagging injuries and, at one point, his first three-match losing streak in over seven years, his run to the French Open semifinals was encouraging. He won four consecutive straight-set matches and defeated Alexander Zverev before falling to Sinner. Even against Sinner, he didn`t lose a set by more than a single break. However, he appeared emotional leaving the court and later admitted he might be closer to retirement than ever. Losing decisively to Alcaraz in last year`s Wimbledon final probably also weighed on him. But if the 24-time Slam champion is to reach No. 25, it`s most likely to happen at the All England Club, where he has lifted the trophy seven times and lost only twice since 2017. His draw is tricky, with potential matches against Alex De Minaur (2024 quarterfinalist) in the fourth round and Indian Wells champion Jack Draper (who took a set from Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2021) in the quarterfinals. However, Djokovic needs very few favorable bounces to make it deep into the second week.

Coco Gauff

Odds: +550 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals)

At just 21 years old, Gauff has already built a Hall of Fame-worthy resume, including two Grand Slam titles, a WTA Finals win in 2024, two other 1000-level titles, and a Slam doubles title. She has achieved this despite occasional struggles with her serve and forehand, indicating significant potential for future improvement. She is still seeking a major breakthrough at Wimbledon. Her 2019 upset of five-time champion Venus Williams as a 15-year-old was a career highlight, but she has won only eight total matches in her four subsequent Wimbledon appearances. Like Sabalenka, her draw is challenging, potentially facing a resurgent Sofia Kenin (who upset her here two years ago) in the third round before a likely meeting with Swiatek or Rybakina in the quarterfinals. Despite this early stage in her career and the difficult draw, Gauff has proven herself too formidable not to be considered a top contender.

Elena Rybakina

Odds: +550 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Iga Swiatek (fourth round)

Rybakina is known as a player who excels in big matches. Since her unexpected victory at Wimbledon in 2022, she holds a 12-8 record in semifinals and 7-5 in finals. She has won four of her last seven matches against Sabalenka and has split her last eight encounters with Swiatek. While she has faced coaching instability and suffered upset losses against lower-ranked players, her peak game remains outstanding. Rybakina possesses arguably the most effective serve among top players, winning 63% of her service points this year. Over the past three years, she has a 16-2 record at Wimbledon. She may potentially need to defeat Swiatek in the fourth round and Gauff in the quarterfinals, but the betting odds place her as a co-favorite with Gauff to reach the final from the bottom half of the draw.

Only need a few breaks

Iga Swiatek

Odds: +850 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Coco Gauff (quarterfinals)

It has been an unusual year for the five-time Slam champion, who briefly dropped to No. 8 in the WTA rankings before her strong showing at Bad Homburg (where she reached the final). Swiatek has already lost ten matches this year, more than in all of 2024, and failed to win the French Open for the first time since 2021. Her performance in Bad Homburg was promising, but Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam where she has not yet reached the semifinals. With Rybakina and Gauff potentially in her path, it would be a surprise if her first semifinal appearance at Wimbledon comes this year.

Jack Draper

Odds: +1600 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Novak Djokovic (quarterfinals)

On one hand, the 23-year-old has had a breakout season, following his 2024 US Open semifinal run by winning the Indian Wells title, reaching two other finals, and climbing to No. 4 in the world. On the other hand, he has a modest 2-3 record at Wimbledon, his home Slam, and a 20-14 record on grass overall. Draper did defeat Alcaraz at Queen`s Club last year and had a solid semifinal run there this year. However, facing a red-hot Alexander Bublik potentially in the third round and Djokovic in the quarters means the draw was not particularly kind to him.

Madison Keys

Odds: +1200 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)

The Australian Open champion reached a career-high ranking of No. 5 shortly after her 30th birthday and holds an impressive 11-1 record in Slams this season after reaching the French Open quarterfinals. Keys has reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals twice and is projected to reach a quarterfinal clash against Sabalenka. However, she lost her two most recent grass-court matches in straight sets to grass specialists Tatjana Maria and Marketa Vondrousova.

Marketa Vondrousova

Odds: +1600 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (third round)

Vondrousova experienced a significant rise and fall after winning Wimbledon in 2023. She was upset in the first round the following year and then missed most of seven months due to injury. She also lost five of her first eleven matches in 2025, but recently won the Berlin title on grass, defeating Keys, Diana Shnaider, Ons Jabeur, and notably, Sabalenka in straight sets. Still ranked No. 73, Vondrousova faces McCartney Kessler in the first round, potentially followed by Raducanu and Sabalenka. This is a difficult draw, but the unconventional lefty will be a challenging opponent.

Others: Mirra Andreeva (+1200), Qinwen Zheng (+1800), Jasmine Paolini (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2500)

They love Wimbledon (and/or grass courts)

Elina Svitolina

Odds: +3300 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)

The 30-year-old has returned to consistent form since her comeback after maternity leave in 2023, reaching five quarterfinals in her last nine Grand Slams. Svitolina has an excellent 9-2 record at Wimbledon during that period. She is relatively resilient against lower-ranked players, holding a 3-7 record against top-five opponents over the past year but a strong 39-9 record (.813 win percentage) against everyone else. She is projected to reach the round of 16, most likely against Sabalenka.

Taylor Fritz

Odds: +3300 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Daniil Medvedev (fourth round)

While many players face tough draws, Taylor Fritz`s seems relatively favorable. Although he could face big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round and potentially Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third and Daniil Medvedev in the fourth, he landed in Alexander Zverev`s quarter and has a dominant 5-0 record against Zverev in the past year. If Fritz can navigate the tricky early matches, he is well-positioned for a deep run in his quarter.

Alexander Bublik

Odds: +3300 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (third round)

Apparently, falling out of the ATP top 50 served as a wake-up call for the unpredictable Bublik. He won nine of his last eleven matches during the clay season and then defeated four consecutive top-25 opponents, including Sinner and Medvedev, to win the title in Halle on grass last week. He has the ability to beat or lose to anyone in the draw and could present a significant third-round challenge for Jack Draper in what might be one of the most interesting potential early matches in the men`s draw.

Barbora Krejcikova

Odds: +4000 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third round)

As one of the era`s greatest doubles players (with seven Grand Slam doubles titles), Krejcikova is always an unpredictable presence in singles draws. She has won only 20 matches in her last twelve Grand Slams, but seven of those came during her run at Wimbledon last year. Due to injury, she has played only six matches this year and had to withdraw from Eastbourne recently with a thigh issue. While her chances for a deep run might seem low, watch out if she manages to build momentum.

Lorenzo Musetti

Odds: +5000 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Ben Shelton (fourth round)

The past 52 weeks have been quietly successful for the 23-year-old Italian. Musetti has reached the semifinals in two of his last four Grand Slams – Wimbledon last year and the French Open this year – and made the semifinals or better in three consecutive 1000-level events. In his last five tournaments, he has only lost to Djokovic, Alcaraz, or Draper. Landing in Sinner`s quarter was not ideal, but Musetti is projected to reach the quarterfinals at minimum.

Others: Daniil Medvedev (2023-24 semifinalist, +3300), Jelena Ostapenko (2024 quarterfinalist, +3300), Jiri Lehecka (+4000), Ons Jabeur (2022-23 finalist, +5000), Emma Navarro (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Alex de Minaur (2024 quarterfinalist, +5000), Ekaterina Alexandrova (+5000), Hubert Hurkacz (2021 semifinalist, +6600), Tommy Paul (2024 quarterfinalist, +6600), Donna Vekic (2024 semifinalist, 100-1), Tatjana Maria (2022 semifinalist, 100-1), Denis Shapovalov (2021 semifinalist, 100-1), Grigor Dimitrov (2014 semifinalist, 100-1), Cameron Norrie (2022 semifinalist, 300-1), Lulu Sun (2024 quarterfinalist, 300-1), Marin Cilic (2017 semifinalist, 400-1), Matteo Berrettini (2021 finalist), Petra Kvitova (2011 and 2014 champion)

Waiting for a surge

Naomi Osaka

Odds: +4000 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Qinwen Zheng (second round)

According to Tennis Abstract`s Elo rankings, which assess performance quality, Naomi Osaka has risen to 31st in the world. This is, of course, below her pre-motherhood level but still quite good. However, due to Grand Slams awarding significant WTA ranking points and her consistently facing difficult draws, she is ranked only 56th. In her last six Grand Slams, Osaka has faced a top-20 opponent by the second round. She pushed Swiatek close at the 2024 French Open, then defeated Jelena Ostapenko at the US Open before encountering a formidable Karolina Muchova. She beat Muchova at the Australian Open but had to retire due to injury. She played a tight three-setter against Paula Badosa at the French Open but lost. Was her Wimbledon draw any kinder? Not significantly. She will likely face Qinwen Zheng in the second round. While she has split nine sets with Zheng historically, she lost their only meeting on grass, which hasn`t been her strongest surface. The pursuit of a major breakthrough will likely continue into the hard-court season.

Others: Emma Raducanu (+5000), Karolina Muchova (+5000), Holger Rune (+6600)

American sleepers

Amanda Anisimova

Odds: +2500 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jasmine Paolini (fourth round)

After taking most of 2023 off, Anisimova returned to the top 40 in 2024 and has seen a surge in 2025. She won her first 1000-level title in Doha and enters Wimbledon having won nine of her last eleven matches (six of eight on grass). With powerful groundstrokes and a strong return game, she could pose a threat in Paolini`s quarter, provided she navigates a tricky first-round match against Yulia Putintseva.

Ben Shelton

Odds: +5000 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)

It`s easy to assume a big serve translates directly to success on grass, but this is a somewhat outdated notion, and the 22-year-old Shelton is still adapting to the surface. He has an 8-10 record on grass overall and enters Wimbledon having lost three consecutive matches. Nevertheless, reaching the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2024 hints at his potential. A hypothetical fourth-round encounter with Musetti, with the winner potentially facing Sinner, would be incredibly exciting.

Others: Sofia Kenin (100-1), Ashlyn Krueger (100-1), Frances Tiafoe (100-1), McCartney Kessler (200-1)

The youngsters

Jakub Mensik

Odds: +6600 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jack Draper (fourth round)

The powerful 19-year-old was one of the few players who truly capitalized on Jannik Sinner`s three-month spring break, defeating Fritz and Djokovic en route to winning the Miami 1000-level title. He has gone just 8-7 since then (2-2 on grass), but the fundamentals of his game are solid. A relatively favorable draw might give him a decent chance of reaching at least the fourth round.

Learner Tien

Odds: 300-1 | First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Holger Rune (second round)

He may not possess the raw power of fellow teenagers like Mensik or Joao Fonseca, but his precise left-handed game and often excellent service return make him a difficult opponent. He also has a surprisingly strong record against top players, being 3-1 against top-10 opponents in 2025 with wins over Medvedev (Australian Open), Zverev (Acapulco), and Shelton (on grass at Mallorca). He could have an opportunity for a fourth top-10 victory against Rune in the second round.

Others: Diana Shnaider (+5000), Marta Kostyuk (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Joao Fonseca (100-1), Gabriel Diallo (100-1), Clara Tauson (100-1)