Although McLaren seemed to have the fastest car in the initial races of the 2025 Formula 1 season, Red Bull`s strategic move during qualifying for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix has given Max Verstappen a great opportunity to take the lead in the world championship.
McLaren`s strong performance in practice sessions in Jeddah led many to believe that Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri would secure the front row for the reigning constructors` champions. However, the Saturday qualifying session turned out to be very dramatic.
Championship leader Norris crashed early in Q3, placing him 10th on the starting grid and significantly reducing his chances of staying ahead of Piastri and Verstappen in the championship standings.
Norris`s crash also left only a little over eight minutes in Q3, just enough time for the remaining drivers to attempt two flying laps if they chose to.
This option was particularly relevant for Verstappen and Mercedes` George Russell, as they were the only drivers with two sets of fresh soft tires available.
Piastri had already completed his first fast lap before Norris`s accident, securing a time and using one of his two remaining new sets of soft tires.
Red Bull capitalized on the situation. Verstappen`s engineer, Gianpiero Lambiase, instructed him to go out for an initial run, in which Verstappen set a provisional pole position time, putting pressure on his competitors.
Russell and then Piastri briefly took the top spot, but Verstappen, after a quick pit stop for fresh tires, ultimately claimed pole position, beating Piastri by just a fraction of a second.
Verstappen`s ability to set a provisional pole time on his first run was even more impressive considering he had enough fuel for two attempts.
Verstappen Praises Strategic Decision, Horner Highlights Tight Margin
Verstappen explained, “After the crash, we had to adjust our plan. I wasn`t completely sure what to do.”
“In the end, GP (Lambiase) suggested fueling for two laps. So, I did the first lap on used tires from the out-lap, then pitted and switched to new tires. This meant carrying more fuel, making the first lap slightly slower.”
“But it was the right decision. It was definitely the best approach for me in terms of getting a feel for the car and building up to the limit.”
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner mentioned that this strategy left them with only a 25-second window for Verstappen to complete both runs. He also emphasized that Verstappen deserved immense credit for delivering another excellent qualifying lap.
Horner stated, “It was on the edge of being able to do two timed laps, with only a 25-second margin, or just sticking with one attempt.”
“We chose to go for two laps, which adds pressure because any issue would eliminate that margin.”
“What impressed me most was that because of the pit stop, he had to carry extra fuel.”
“So, he was carrying six or seven kilograms more fuel on that first lap, where he still went fastest, putting pressure on everyone else. And then, his final lap was also outstanding.”
Mercedes Missed an Opportunity?
Russell found himself in a similar situation to Verstappen after Norris`s crash, but Mercedes chose to wait and only do one run in the final moments.
Russell said that the option of two runs was considered, but the decision to stick with one meant he had to drive more cautiously on his single attempt.
“We discussed starting on new tires and then using the used set afterwards,” Russell commented.
“I`m sure it was discussed on the pit wall. I`m not involved in every detail of those conversations while driving, and I trust the team. But it`s something we`ll discuss later.”
“As a driver, knowing you only have one lap, especially on a track like this, you have to be fully committed.”
“At Turn 1, you`re pushing the tires to be as cold as possible, and I wasn`t confident enough to push them any colder. I lost some lap time because my tires were a bit too hot, as I was being a bit too cautious with them.”
Piastri revealed that McLaren also thought about attempting an extra run but concluded that the risk was greater than the potential reward.
Piastri explained, “We talked about it, yes, but decided against it. Since I already had a lap time set, I didn`t need to do another one immediately.”
“It was going to be very tight. As Max said, he had to fuel for the entire run. That first lap on used tires with extra fuel – you`re weighing the learning benefit against the potential disadvantage.”
“When you don`t have a lap time on the board, it`s a different situation. For us, having already set a time and having used three or four new sets in a row, we opted for the single lap at the end, which I believe was the right choice for us.”
Piastri Confident, Verstappen Uncertain About Race Pace
If Verstappen wins on Sunday and Norris doesn`t finish second, Verstappen will take the championship lead.
Verstappen is currently eight points behind Norris, while Piastri is three points behind his McLaren teammate in the championship race.
However, Piastri is expected to be the favorite for the race. McLaren`s advantage over the rest of the field has been more significant in race conditions due to better tire management, especially in hot weather.
For Piastri, the key will be maintaining at least second place at the start. Then, McLaren will have options to use undercut or overcut strategies against Verstappen in what is anticipated to be a one-stop race, assuming there are no safety car periods.
“I think we have good pace. Red Bull and Max seem more competitive here than they were last week in Bahrain,” Piastri noted.
“Suzuka is somewhat similar in layout to this track with many high-speed corners, so it makes sense to me that they are more competitive here. We`ll see if that translates to the race.”
“I`m confident in our car. There are many DRS zones here, which is different from Suzuka.”
Piastri mentioned Suzuka because Verstappen won dominantly in Japan after a similar qualifying surprise, but overtaking is much harder at Suzuka compared to the Jeddah circuit.
McLaren has stated they will be `more aggressive` after Verstappen`s win in Japan, so Sunday`s race will be a crucial test of this approach.
Verstappen, a two-time winner in Jeddah, is uncertain if he has the race pace to hold off Piastri.
“Up to this point, I`m not very confident, to be honest,” he admitted. “My long runs weren`t particularly strong compared to Oscar or Lando. I will give it my best, for sure.”
“Does that mean it will be enough? I don`t know. But the car definitely improved a bit from yesterday`s testing.”
“So, I hope that will also help with tire wear, but it`s hard to say if it`s enough to fight. But as I said, I`m going to try.”
Can Russell Achieve His First Win in 2025?
Russell should not be ruled out of contention, as he has had a strong start to the season and is only 14 points behind Norris in the standings.
Starting from third, Russell will likely need to overtake Piastri at the start to have a chance at a surprising Mercedes victory.
“I think it depends on Turn 1, honestly. Max and I were just discussing it. We both agree McLaren are the clear favorites and have better pace than everyone else,” Russell commented.
“If Oscar gets into the lead, we might see a repeat of Bahrain. If we maintain the qualifying order, it could be a close race until the pit stops.”
“The medium tire this year is like last year`s soft, which only one driver used in the entire race. We saw the tires were too hard in Japan. We all pushed for softer tires.”
“Hopefully, it won`t be a straightforward one-stop race, and there could be a few different strategies in play.”
`Anything Can Happen, But McLaren Will Be Disappointed`
While McLaren is putting on a brave face after qualifying, the possibility of Verstappen leading the championship after five races, despite McLaren`s potential dominance, will be concerning for the team, according to Bernie Collins.
“They do have a very fast race car, but similar to Japan recently, this weekend was mainly about securing a front-row start today.”
“Oscar achieved that, but he might be slightly disappointed it`s not pole position. And there are questions to be asked about maximizing the car`s performance today.”
“When you have the fastest car, as we believe they do, it`s about capitalizing on opportunities when they arise.”
“Here, anything can happen in the race, so you have to be ready to seize opportunities, of course. Zak Brown was optimistic, but I think they will be a bit disappointed.”
