Scottie vs. Rory, surprise contenders and more PGA Championship storylines

The 2025 PGA Championship, the second major event of the golf season, is set to tee off this Thursday at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. A key question on everyone`s mind: Can Rory McIlroy capture his second major victory in a row? Will world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler add another major title to his collection? And what kind of impact will Bryson DeChambeau and other players from the LIV Golf tour make?

From the leading favorites to potential dark horses and other compelling angles, here are six key storylines to watch this week at the PGA Championship.

Who is the favorite: world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler or Masters champion Rory McIlroy?

Mark Schlabach: While Scottie Scheffler is slightly favored by oddsmakers and recently secured his first win of the 2025 season, it`s certainly arguable that Rory McIlroy is currently playing the best golf globally. He has already claimed victory three times on tour this year, each in tournaments with strong fields: the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Players Championship, and the Masters, where his win completed the career Grand Slam, making him the sixth player to achieve this feat.

McIlroy`s recent performance and his exceptional record at Quail Hollow Club, featuring four wins and a runner-up finish, position him as the player to beat this week. Scheffler, in contrast, has not participated in a stroke-play event at Quail Hollow. His only appearance there was during the 2022 Presidents Cup, which was not particularly memorable for him; he went 0-3-1, contributing just half a point to the U.S. team`s 17½-12½ victory over the International squad.

Paolo Uggetti: I agree with Mark – Rory should be considered the favorite this week, and nobody is arriving at this tournament in better form than he is. However, it`s striking how quickly the dynamics at the top of the game can shift. Scheffler has demonstrated remarkable consistency this season, but winning only once and not maintaining his extraordinary pace from last year has effectively created an opportunity for McIlroy to once again be seen as the world`s premier player. I wouldn`t be surprised if, by Sunday, both players are contending for the major title and find themselves competing directly against each other.

Beyond Scottie and Rory, who would you pick this week?

Mark Schlabach: Justin Thomas is currently performing at a very high level, reminiscent of his best golf, and he previously won the PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow in 2017. JT recently ended a winless stretch of nearly three years on tour by defeating Andrew Novak in a playoff at the RBC Heritage on April 20th. He also finished second at the Valspar Championship (a tournament he was close to winning, but finished with bogeys on two of the final three holes, losing by one stroke to Viktor Hovland) and tied for second place at last week`s Truist Championship, finishing two strokes behind winner Sepp Straka.

Thomas has a solid track record at Quail Hollow, securing top-26 finishes in five out of his six starts there. He ranks highly in strokes gained statistics: fifth in tee to green (1.227), fifth in approach (.896), and 20th in putting (.432).

Paolo Uggetti: Are you telling me this is one of the longest courses ever faced in professional golf, featuring healthy rough and significant pre-tournament rain making driving distance crucial, and you`re not considering Bryson DeChambeau? Quail Hollow this year is expected to favor long hitters, and nobody is hitting it longer than DeChambeau. According to Data Golf, DeChambeau is gaining over two strokes specifically with his driver, a lead of an entire stroke over the next best player in this category. However, it`s not just his driving; DeChambeau has significantly improved other aspects of his game over the past few years. He has recorded five top-10 finishes in the last nine majors, and if he can deliver a performance similar to his showing at Valhalla last year, he will undoubtedly be a strong contender.

What do you expect from Xander Schauffele (defending champion) this week?

Mark Schlabach: After being sidelined for over two months due to a painful rib injury, Xander Schauffele`s game is showing signs of returning to form. He has achieved four consecutive strong finishes, including a tie for eighth place at the Masters and a tie for 11th at the Truist Championship.

While he ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach (.821), his statistics off the tee (157th, -.320), around the green (135th, -.155), and putting (140th, -.244) are lower. I`d likely attribute these lower rankings to a lack of recent competitive rounds more than anything else. The key takeaway is this: Schauffele has won two of the last four major championships and finished in the top 10 in seven of the past nine. Furthermore, he finished as the runner-up in his two most recent appearances at Quail Hollow.

Paolo Uggetti: Schauffele is currently the sport`s enigmatic figure. His baseline performance, as always, is exceptionally high, meaning that even when clearly not at his peak midseason form, he still manages to secure top-20 finishes. Over his last four tournaments, Schauffele`s lowest finish was a tie for 18th at the RBC Heritage, and he tied for 11th last week at Philly Cricket. Frankly, I have no idea what outcome to expect from Schauffele at Quail Hollow this week, but the fact that the defending champion (and a two-time major winner) is somewhat overlooked right now speaks volumes.

Which LIV Golfers are you watching most closely this week?

Mark Schlabach: Given that driving distance will be crucial at Quail Hollow Club, how can you not expect Bryson DeChambeau to be in contention? He finished as the runner-up in last year`s PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, losing to Xander Schauffele by just one stroke. He held an early lead in the final round of the Masters before a 3-over 75 saw him drop back to a tie for fifth. No one hits the ball as far as DeChambeau off the tee, and if his iron play is sharper than it was at Augusta National Golf Club, I wouldn`t be surprised to see him hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.

Patrick Reed also finished solo third at the Masters, and he has a respectable history at Quail Hollow as well.

Paolo Uggetti: Until he achieves a top-10 finish in a major, my answer for who to watch will continue to be Joaquín Niemann. It`s becoming a noticeable pattern that a player who consistently wins on the LIV Tour struggles to perform at his best when competing against the elite field at a major championship. Niemann certainly possesses the skills to win multiple majors, and Data Golf currently ranks him among the top-10 players globally. So, why doesn`t this translate into success during the four most important weeks of the year? This question persists regarding Niemann`s career, and this week presents another opportunity for him to change that narrative.

Any under-the-radar players to watch this week?

Mark Schlabach: With Sepp Straka`s recent second win this season at the Truist Championship, golfers who previously played for the University of Georgia have now won five times across 22 PGA Tour events this season.

Another former Bulldog, Keith Mitchell, has been showing improved form after a difficult end to 2024. Mitchell has achieved five consecutive top-25 finishes, including a tie for second at the Corales Puntacana and a tie for seventh at the Truist Championship. Mitchell is ranked 11th on tour in driving distance (313.3 yards) and 21st in strokes gained: tee to green (.868). He has two career top-10 finishes specifically at Quail Hollow.

Canada`s Taylor Pendrith hasn`t played his best golf over the last few weeks, but he had three top-10 finishes earlier this season. He is another player known for hitting the ball a long way off the tee (307.9 yards) and hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation (70.6%). His short game and putting haven`t been stellar, but if his putter gets hot this week, he could definitely be in contention.

Paolo Uggetti: Here`s a two-for-one suggestion: keep an eye on the Højgaard twins, Nicolai and Rasmus. Both possess the length required for this course and could quietly make a significant impact this week. As for other promising young players, I`d also include Michael Thorbjornsen; he has recorded two top-5 finishes this season and has been playing exceptionally well recently.

Finally, having watched Akshay Bhatia at the Players Championship, it`s clear he has the potential to win a major. Perhaps at this point in his career, where his game is strong but not yet flawless, a course like Quail Hollow could be the ideal setting for his major breakthrough.

How is Quail Hollow expected to play this week?

Mark Schlabach: Quail Hollow is recognized as one of the longest courses on the tour, measuring 7,626 yards. This makes it the fourth longest in PGA Championship history and the longest for a par-71 course. It`s likely to play even longer following the significant rain the course received on Monday, with more precipitation forecasted through Wednesday. If these conditions persist, there will be minimal roll on the fairways, placing an even greater emphasis on driving distance and proficiency with long irons.

Contending players will also need to perform well around the greens, as they are expected to miss many. According to research from ESPN, eight greens were hit in less than 50% of attempts during the 2017 PGA Championship; the opening hole was hit in only 33% of attempts.

Golfers will need to successfully navigate the par 3s (three out of four measure over 200 yards), capitalize on scoring opportunities on the par 5s, and survive the challenging three-hole closing stretch famously known as the `Green Mile.` In 2017, this stretch saw more double-bogeys or worse (99) than birdies or better (88), based on ESPN Research.