Fresh off their French Open victories just three weeks ago, Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz arrive at Wimbledon as top contenders. Both champions are now considered leading favorites as the prestigious tournament commences on Monday.
Carlos Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion at the All England Club, aims for a third consecutive title. Should he succeed, he would become only the fifth man in the Open era to achieve this remarkable feat. Standing in his way could be Jannik Sinner, who will be looking to avenge his recent French Open final loss to Alcaraz and secure his first-ever Grand Slam title on grass.
Meanwhile, Coco Gauff holds two major titles but has yet to advance beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon. The women`s field appears wide open, with eight different women claiming the Wimbledon crown in the last eight tournaments. Could Aryna Sabalenka finally capture her first Wimbledon title? Or will Iga Swiatek, after a challenging year, bounce back to lift the trophy?
And what of Novak Djokovic? Could he defy expectations to win a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?
Our panel of experts offers their insights on these crucial questions and more.
How will Gauff fare after her French Open win?
D`Arcy Maine: Gauff arrives at Wimbledon, an event where she has enjoyed immense popularity since her stunning debut in 2019, filled with confidence. She is certainly in a position to achieve her best result here. However, it won`t be straightforward. Despite reaching the fourth round in her impressive debut six years ago, she hasn`t progressed past that stage since and suffered an opening-round loss in her only grass-court warm-up event in Berlin earlier this month.
Crucially, she faces a tough section of the draw with several challenging potential opponents. These include Dayana Yastremska in the first round, possible second and third-round encounters with former Australian Open champions Victoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin (who defeated her at Wimbledon in 2023), formidable grass player Liudmila Samsonova in the fourth round, and potentially five-time major winner Iga Swiatek or 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals. It`s a demanding path, and frankly, just listing it is exhausting. While Gauff is capable of winning all these matches, securing a third major title during this fortnight seems unlikely.
Bill Connelly: Gauff has reached a point where a tournament win wouldn`t be surprising – her defense and speed are elite, as is her knack for grinding out victories even when things aren`t perfect. But her draw is full of pitfalls, and her grass record over the last two years is just 9-6. Even including her initial upset of Venus Williams six years ago, she`s only 7-9 against top-50 players on grass, including three consecutive losses. She`ll likely need to defeat three top-50 players just to reach Rybakina or Swiatek in the quarterfinals. That appears to be a significant challenge.
Simon Cambers: This could unfold in one of two ways. Either Gauff arrives at Wimbledon feeling invincible, boosted by her Roland Garros triumph, or she might be mentally exhausted and exit early. It`s a curious situation. On one hand, she should be riding high on confidence after winning the French Open, and she`ll undoubtedly carry herself with greater presence after her Paris success.
On the other hand, I feel she never truly played her best tennis at Roland Garros. While navigating matches without peak performance is her trademark, on grass – where the ball travels faster than on clay – she`ll have less time to adjust, particularly if any part of her game is struggling. If her serve is strong, she`ll have a real opportunity, as she moves well and is a fierce competitor. However, her draw is very difficult. Dayana Yastremska is a tough first opponent, Sofia Kenin or Taylor Townsend could be tricky in the third round, followed by Daria Kasatkina in the fourth, and either Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals would be incredibly challenging. If she reaches the second week, she`ll be tough to beat, but getting there will be hard.
If Alcaraz and Sinner meet again in an epic battle, who prevails?
Maine: At this moment, I lean towards recent form and pick Alcaraz. He holds an 8-4 lead in their career meetings, having won the last five encounters. Sinner hasn`t defeated Alcaraz on any surface, in any round, since 2023, and has only beaten him once three years ago when a title was at stake.
Sinner is the world No. 1 for a reason and can beat anyone else, but Alcaraz appears to be his current nemesis. For now, anyway. Given that Alcaraz is the two-time defending Wimbledon champion and recently won another grass title at Queen`s Club, while Sinner has only reached the semifinals at the All England Club once, the odds certainly seem to favor Alcaraz again.
Connelly: Alcaraz had better hope so. We seem to be entering an era where he`s the favorite on natural surfaces (French Open, Wimbledon), and Sinner is favored on hard courts (US Open, Australian Open). But their French Open final was incredibly close – Sinner won 193 total points, Alcaraz 192. Had Sinner won just one more crucial point at the right moment, we`d be discussing his calendar-year Grand Slam chances and a potential `Roger Federer, 2004-07` streak of major wins.
Alcaraz is definitely the favorite, both due to his proven success on grass and because Sinner might have to overcome Djokovic on the Serb`s best surface (and Sinner`s less favored one) before potentially facing Alcaraz. But Sinner seems to be continuously improving.
Cambers: Alcaraz has the track record on grass, having won the title in the last two years, although Sinner did win their only prior meeting on the surface at Wimbledon in 2022. Much depends on how quickly Sinner recovers from the events in Paris. He appears to be someone who can compartmentalize and view that tournament as a positive step forward, even if others might be disheartened by failing to convert three match points in a Slam final. However, it`s hard to see him being at his absolute best immediately, especially on a surface that, in theory, presents more challenges for him.
Alcaraz will also be fatigued, but as he demonstrated at Queen`s, winning a series of tight matches, he tends to improve as the tournament progresses. With a favorable early draw, he can ease into the event and strengthen as the bigger matches arrive. If they meet again here, it would be in the final, and you`d have to give Alcaraz a mental edge simply because of the outcome in Paris.
Can Djokovic claim the Grand Slam record at Wimbledon?
Maine: Is it possible? Yes. Will he? I`m less certain. But I do believe Wimbledon offers his strongest opportunity to secure the elusive 25th major title, thanks to his history of success here and his expertise on grass, a surface that still challenges many younger players. His path to a potential seventh consecutive final could be tough, with British favorite Jack Draper as a possible quarterfinal opponent and Sinner likely in the semifinal. However, even though Sinner defeated him at the same stage in Paris, a grass meeting would feel much more balanced. If Djokovic were to advance, he could set up the ultimate rematch with Alcaraz.
Djokovic would have immense motivation. As he has hinted at retirement in the near future, I can imagine no more fitting farewell than achieving this record at his favorite and most cherished major.
Connelly: Considering Alcaraz seems to have surpassed him on grass (their Wimbledon final last year was quite a decisive win for Alcaraz), and factoring in that he`d likely need to beat both Sinner and Alcaraz, it appears a significant challenge. However, if it`s going to happen, it will happen at Wimbledon. I was genuinely impressed by Djokovic`s play at Roland Garros. It wasn`t just reaching the semifinals – he made the quarterfinals the previous year with a torn meniscus. It was his excellent rhythm from the outset of the tournament. He won four matches without dropping a set and convincingly defeated Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. He couldn`t find a way to take a set from an in-form Sinner, but on grass, he might discover an extra advantage or two.
Cambers: It`s certainly his best chance. I thought Djokovic actually played quite well against Sinner in the Paris semifinals, but on that surface, with the extra split second Sinner had to power his groundstrokes, it was simply too difficult for Djokovic at 38 years old. Grass provides Djokovic with a better opportunity. Not only does he move better than most on it, his serve – still underrated – gains extra purchase and becomes even more effective.
Motivation will be higher at Wimbledon than anywhere else. It`s only a year since he reached the final, and that was after undergoing knee surgery. There`s little practical difference between 37 and 38, and he understands what needs to be done better than anyone. Another win would secure his 25th Slam and also equal Roger Federer`s record of eight Wimbledon titles, which would undoubtedly bring him great satisfaction. However, in addition to conceding over 15 years to two of the fittest players on tour, his primary obstacle is the likelihood of needing to defeat both Sinner and Alcaraz to win, plus Draper in the quarterfinals. That might prove too demanding.
Which player could cause a surprise over the next two weeks?
Maine: I wish I could name surprise French Open semifinalist Lois Boisson, but she unfortunately lost in qualifying. However, there are several under-the-radar players capable of major upsets and deep runs. It feels odd mentioning a former champion from just two years ago, but Marketa Vondrousova is unseeded – just as she was in 2023 – and was sidelined for a significant part of the spring due to a shoulder injury. However, she excels on grass and recently won her first title since her Wimbledon triumph in Berlin, achieving several impressive wins. She could potentially face Sabalenka in the third round, but she handily defeated her 6-2, 6-4 in the Berlin semifinals and could certainly repeat that result.
An honorable mention goes to Alexandra Eala, who reached the final in Eastbourne this week and could potentially upset defending champion Barbora Krejcikova (who withdrew from Eastbourne with a thigh injury) in the first round.
Connelly: On the men`s side, my attention is immediately drawn to Zverev`s quarter, which seems the most likely section for an unexpected contender to emerge. Taylor Fritz has a decent draw if he can navigate past big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the opening round, and if Matteo Berrettini can rediscover his rhythm, it will likely be here. However, I`ll pick Gabriel Diallo. The 23-year-old Canadian won in Hertogenbosch, defeating three top-40 opponents, and his straight-sets win over Francisco Cerundolo at the French Open hinted at his significant, versatile game. He`d need to overcome Fritz in the second round for a deep run, but he possesses the capability.
On the women`s side, Jasmine Paolini`s quarter is probably the most open to a surprise, and… I can`t resist. I`m going to keep picking Naomi Osaka to make a significant run until it happens. Grass isn`t her primary surface, and she received another difficult draw – potentially facing No. 5 Zheng Qinwen in the second round. She`s lost four straight matches against top-20 players, but three of those went deep into a deciding set. She`s on the verge of a breakthrough.
Cambers: I`m going with Berrettini. I know he`s a former Wimbledon finalist, but he`s been plagued by injuries since, preventing him from building the momentum that would otherwise make him a serious threat. If he can avoid further injuries, which is a big `if,` he`s in Zverev`s section, which includes winnable matches for him, potentially propelling him into the quarterfinals. There, a matchup with Fritz would offer him a genuine opportunity to reach the semifinals again.
Which first-round matchup excites you most?
Connelly: `Joao Fonseca versus anyone` is usually compelling viewing, and the 18-year-old Fonseca has drawn an intriguing opponent in Jacob Fearnley, who returns well and pushed Djokovic significantly in the second round last year. And Fritz against Mpetshi Perricard should feature some explosive tennis.
On the women`s side, Kenin faces Townsend (each has two straight-sets wins over the other), and we have a clash between two recent champions: Vondrousova versus McCartney Kessler. Vondrousova clearly has more Grand Slam experience and looked outstanding in Berlin last week, defeating three top-12 opponents. But Kessler also won four matches against top-50 women to claim the Nottingham title. She appears very comfortable on grass and nearly defeated Zheng at Queen`s Club.
Cambers: I`m also looking forward to the battle between Fonseca and Fearnley. Both players have climbed the rankings impressively over the past year, and Fearnley`s exceptional attitude is contributing significantly to his progress. However, Fonseca has already demonstrated the talent to reach the top if things go well for him, and despite his limited grass-court experience, he possesses power, composure, and strong self-belief.
My second choice is the all-American showdown between Kenin and Townsend. Kenin is favored based on recent form, but with her tricky lefty serve and skillful hands, Townsend has the game to really disrupt her on grass. Additionally, she successfully navigated three qualifying matches to reach the main draw, giving her momentum.
Maine: Is it just me, or does it feel like there`s an abundance of high-profile opening-round matches? I mentioned the Eala-Krejcikova match earlier, which is a must-watch for me. But sentimentally, it`s hard not to highlight what could be Petra Kvitova`s final Wimbledon appearance. The two-time champion announced she will retire later this season and faces the No. 10 seed Emma Navarro in her first match. If anyone can conjure some last-minute Wimbledon magic, it`s Kvitova, and this match has the potential to be memorable.
On the men`s side, I agree with Simon and Bill: the Fonseca-Fearnley clash could be epic, and fans will undoubtedly turn out in large numbers for both players, regardless of which court they`re on.
